Germany's finance minister recently stated that it will take ten years for the Euro crisis to fully resolve; considered opinion on the Italian debt situation talks of 20 years. Twenty or even ten years is a very long time to put your decisions on hold. The key drivers of our property market are much closer to home: NZ’s business and job growth, individual confidence in future earnings, the number of households starting or exiting NZ.
The number of homes needed and the number being built are key influences. Statistics NZ data for September show the new building consents status was:
• Following large increases in July and August 2011, the seasonally adjusted numbers of new dwellings authorised, both including and excluding apartments, showed large decreases.
• Only 1,246 new homes were approved.
These data indicate for 2011 some 15,000 new homes being built while the forecast standard need is some 25,000. The BNZ forecasts a shortfall of 40,000 taking into account Christchurch’s replacements.
In summary, regardless of what happens short term in Europe or the USA: NZ’s housing market is undersupplied. The shortfall is more accentuated in Auckland and extremely noticeable in Pukekohe. There are no new subdivisions, very few new home starts and an absence of major building companies.
Across Auckland Barfoot & Thompson listings rose from 4,762 in August to 4,999 at the end of October, while since May sales dropped from 917 to 752 in October.
Pukekohe's pattern was similar, with residential listings rising from 130 in August to 188 in early November. Sales June through September were exceptional for winter, but tailed off slightly in October.
Some blame the Rugby World Cup for the slowdown; others blame the Greeks and Italians, the GFC; still others blame our parliamentary elections.
Changing circumstances affect us all differently. Clearly, ignoring the GFC and other international happenings would be foolish. Financial markets have already adjusted; interest rates and lending criteria already accommodate the GFC and other more local risks.
Deferring investment decisions until the GFC resolves would be somewhat similar to Graham Henry deciding the All Blacks should withdraw from the RWC because Dan Carter was injured.
While existing homes presently offer better buying than building a similar home, a good selection of sections also exists.
Trends Upward pressure on $300,000 to $500,000 properties persists, and will start building in the $500,000 to $600,000 price band. Home and land package offerings will increase in number and price.
As a buyer I would get my finances organised and buy while interest rates are low, before prices increase.
As a seller I would ensure that my entire property was as ‘show home’ as possible before entering the market. Find a realtor you trust and feel comfortable with. Good selling opportunities are available before Christmas and in any event you should be ready to enter the market for the February through April selling season, traditionally Franklin's peak sales period.

027 281 3021 - Elizabeth du Plessis, James Heard