The coalition government is back in the lead, with National, ACT and New Zealand First securing enough support to govern, bolstered by NZ First’s highest poll result in nearly eight years.
A new 1News Verian poll shows National at 36% (up 2), ACT steady at 9%, and NZ First climbing to 7% (up 2). That would give the coalition 64 seats, enough to form a government.
Labour drops to 32%, with the Greens holding at 10% and Te Pāti Māori down to 3%. Combined, the Opposition would take just 58 seats.
Christopher Luxon remains ahead in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, up one point to 23%, with Chris Hipkins close behind on 20% (up 3). Winston Peters also gains, now on 7%.
A second poll, from the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia, mirrored the trend. That poll also showed a dramatic surge in personal support for Peters, who leapt 4.2 points to 12.8%, his highest personal rating since before the 2017 election. Luxon rose to 21.9%, overtaking Hipkins (18.9%), while David Seymour gained 3 points to reach 8%. Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick slipped to 4.2%.
Three recent polls surveyed around 1000 respondents each and had a margin of error of 3.1%. Together, they signal that the government, particularly NZ First, is regaining ground after a rocky start to 2025.
Centrist Ltd.