Political commentator Mathew Hooton argues that despite the Prime Minister’s optimism, mounting evidence suggests that any plan to turn the economy around isn’t stacking up.
Treasury forecasts show no fiscal surplus until 2027/28, with a record $178.5b debt, equivalent to $97,000 per household.
Accounts reveal a $4.6b operating deficit, nearly a billion worse than predicted with Finance Minister Nicola Willis preparing voters for further bad news.
Hooton contrasts Luxon’s approach with Argentina’s current leader, Javier Milei, who enacted radical reforms to turn his nation’s economy around in under a year.
“Milei had some more obvious quick wins and his bold prescription may not be exactly right for New Zealand. But his success makes liars of those claiming New Zealand’s ever-worsening outlook was inevitable and that it’s not possible to turn things around in a year,” he writes.
Due to Milei’s policies—massive spending cuts, taming runaway inflation, and balancing trade—the OECD now projects Argentina’s GDP will grow by 3.6% in 2025.
In stark contrast, New Zealand’s “feeble” growth is driven solely by low- and medium-skilled immigration. Hooton argues Luxon lacks the vision and decisiveness to replicate such success.
“Topping it off, Milei, despite his radical and painful reforms, is also polling better than Luxon,” Hooton remarks.