The government has formally rejected every recommendation from the Climate Change Commission to toughen New Zealand’s long-term emissions targets.
Climate Minister Simon Watts confirmed the decision, despite the Commission warning climate impacts are arriving “sooner and more severely than expected” and that New Zealand “can and should be doing more.”
The coalition had already signalled it would soften the methane target. The government has also refused to shift carbon dioxide and other long-lived gases from net zero by 2050 to a net-negative target, and it will not include international shipping and aviation in the targets.
At the heart of the split is cost. The government says the price tag is too high.
The Ministry for the Environment’s outgoing chief executive also told MPs that public concern about the environment has fallen as cost pressures mount, reinforcing the government’s view that tougher targets carry limited public support.
Government modelling suggests GDP would be 0.4 percent lower in 2035 and 2.2 percent lower in 2050 than under the status quo. In contrast, the Commission argues that faster decarbonisation is “compatible with ongoing economic growth” and would avoid a “harsher and costlier future transition” pushed onto younger generations.
Watts’ response also says they “considered the views of industry” and rural communities worried about land-use change and food production loss if methane targets were tightened. That is despite the Commission’s view that the lower end of a stronger methane target could already be met using “existing technologies and farm management systems.”
It has also been argued that any detailed framework for post-2050 cuts is “best developed closer to 2050.”
Centrist Ltd.