Alex Krainer
On Friday, 6 February 2025, President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Admiral Brad Cooper
held negotiations with Iran’s delegation in Oman. The talks didn’t go
well for the U.S. side as the Iranians apparently rejected all of their
demands. The only positive outcome of the talks was that the two sides
agreed to continue their discussions and are due to meet again this
week.
The following day, on Saturday, Witkoff, Kushner and Admiral Cooper paid a visit to the sailors of the nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
in the Arabian Sea. The ostensible reason for the visit was to thank
the troops for their service amidst heightened tensions in the region.
The
real reason may have been a reassurance mission. Namely, last week an
Iranian drone came within striking distance from the aircraft carrier
and was only shot down after an F 35 jet was scrambled to defend the
vessel. The incident highlighted the vulnerability of the carrier and
its 6,000 member crew at the time when they’re being readied for war
against Iran.
Iran’s missile program is its red line
On Sunday morning, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi
gave an interview expressing his hopes that the talks will continue,
but underscored that Iran’s red lines remain firm: Iran will never
negotiate its defensive deterrent. Israel is demanding that the U.S.
negotiators pressure Iran into dismantling their ballistic missile
program and limit the reach of their missiles to 300 kilometers, so that
they couldn’t reach Israel.
It’s obvious why the Israelis
would want this, but it’s equally obvious why the Iranians would reject
it. Iran’s most advanced missile system, Kheibar Shekan, has a 1,500
kilometers range, and a 550 kilogram warhead. Iran allegedly has 2,000
of them distributed in underground storage sites all over the country
and is producing 300 of them per month.
Furthermore, China has
apparently supplied Iran with advanced anti-ship missiles built to sink
aircraft carriers and provided further support with satellite intel
giving precise, real time coordinates of vessels within their range and
technical assistance integrating these capabilities with Iranian defence
systems. In all, USS Abraham Lincoln and other American ships could be
extremely vulnerable in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.
Netanyahu goes to Washington, again
On
Wednesday, 11 February, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is
due to visit Washington D.C. again, for an unprecedented 6th visit in
the last 12 months. He is expected to exert pressure on Trump to force
the Iranians to give up their ballistic missile program, insisting that
all negotiations with Iran must include limiting Iran’s missiles to 300
kilometer range.
Some observers expect that Netanyahu will
effectively deliver an ultimatum to Trump: deliver results with the
Iranians, or else… The “or else” part is that if Trump’s negotiations
with Iran fail, Israel will act unilaterally and attack Iran. Which
would put Trump into an impossible situation: damned if I do, and damned if I don’t.
If Israel launches an attack, the Iranians will respond with all their
might and could include American naval assets and U.S. bases in the
region. But even if Iran doesn’t strike at American targets, Trump could
find it politically impossible not to support the Israeli attack on
Iran.
Iran’s stance hardens
The pressure on Trump is now quite obvious and lends credence to claims of one Iranian MP who said that during Friday’s talks, the American negotiators were asking for a face-saving, fake campaign:
"America
tried to coordinate a response with us to get out of the obligation
immediately, they wanted to hit 2-3 facilities and for us to respond
back in a coordinated manner, Iran refused the offer."
In
other words, let’s have a fake war and we’ll handle the rest through a
PR campaign. However, it appears that Iran’s stance has hardened since
last summer and they’re not inclined to accept another fake American
attack. Another Iranian MP, Dr. Amirhossein Sabeti, reflected the mood in Iran with a passionate speech to parliament:
What
more concessions do you want to offer them [the U.S.] in order not to
go to war?! Today, the Iranian nation DEMANDS a pre-emptive strike
against Israel and American bases in the region! Not to show weakness
and negotiate with them again.
This leaves Trump
with two choices: go to war against Iran or leave Israel to cope with
the consequences of its actions alone. Both choices could prove
politically disastrous for the Administration.
A minefield of unintended consequences
Even
if they decided to bomb Iran and the military campaign is executed
perfectly with minimal damage, the collateral damage could be
overwhelming. For starters, an escalation of conflict across the region
is a near-certainty. The populations of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iraq are seething with fury against
Israel and if the U.S. supports the Israelis attack on Iran, that anger
could overflow with unpredictable consequences.
Many of the West’s
client regimes could be toppled and even the unlikely victory over Iran
could prove to be a Pyrrhic one. There’s also Iran’s threat that in the
event of war they would shut the Gates of Hormuz, disrupting the flow
of crude oil to global markets. The barrel could skyrocket high into
triple digits, stock markets could crash, and interest rates spike along
with the prices of gold and silver.
The lower cost option would
be to muzzle Benjamin Netanyahu and give him a clear message that if he
goes it alone against Iran, Israel will be on her own. But it’s enough
to spend 5 minutes watching the American mainstream TV networks to
realize that Trump is facing a full-court press of officials and
“expert” strategists to go to war. We’ll know more on Wednesday after
Trump meets with Netanyahu. Hopefully, he’ll be able to wiggle out of
the gathering train-wreck somehow. If not, we’re in for a truly bumpy
ride this year.