His known friendship with Putin, whom he used to advise, could be spun by the Europeans to manipulate Trump into thinking that Putin is already plotting grave violations of a future Ukrainian peace deal, abandon his mediating role as a result, and then escalate the conflict.
Andrew Korybko
Sergey Karaganov, a highly respected Russian expert with prestigious think tank roles who previously advised Yeltsin and Putin, is once again calling for Russia to nuke Europe. He became famous in summer 2023 after RT translated his first article that called for this. He’s back at it again,
however, this time modifying his original proposal by suggesting
conventional strikes against the European elite after a peace deal with
Ukraine before what he believes will be the inevitable second round of
the conflict.
He foresees that “If conventional strikes
have no effect, and Europe does not capitulate or at least retreat, we
should be fully prepared (militarily and, most importantly, politically
and psychologically) to launch limited (but sufficient for political
effect) retaliatory strikes with strategic nuclear weapons.” Only then
will their elite “actually fear us. They should be in terror of us. They
should understand that escalating or even continuing the conflict risks
their immediate physical destruction”.
Although Karaganov insists
that “I am not calling for a nuclear war”, that’s exactly what would
follow Russia launching preemptive conventional and even nuclear strikes
against Europe, especially in pursuit of his complementary goal of
“depriving France and Britain of nuclear weapons”. He makes solid points
about how Russia’s restraint has been perceived as weakness by the
West, thus leading to more dramatic provocations against it, but
overcompensating for this through his proposed means isn’t realistic.
Nobody
should doubt his intentions since he’s an indisputable Russian patriot
who sincerely loves his country, which is why it pains him deeply to not
see its adversaries completely destroyed, but once again calling for
Russia to nuke Europe at this sensitive moment in the peace process is
counterproductive. Trump overreacted last summer to Medvedev’s much milder nuclear war innuendo so the precedent exists for him to overreact to Karaganov’s explicit call for Russia to nuke Europe after peace with Ukraine.
Trump
is capricious, easily offended, and obsessed with humiliating all those
who offend him. His attempt to humiliate Medvedev after last summer’s
incident, Russia’s former president and Deputy Chair of the Security
Council, shows that he wouldn’t think twice about doing the same to
Karaganov, who no longer serves in Russian officialdom. This could risk
the future of the US’ peace efforts, not to mention possibly inspire
Trump to step up US military aid to Ukraine, maybe even finally sending Tomahawks.
Trump likely never heard of Karaganov, but the same Europeans who manipulated him after the Anchorage Summit into backtracking on the understandings that he reached with Putin
have, and they could bring Karaganov’s article to Trump’s attention.
They might therefore spin Karaganov’s known friendship with Putin to
manipulate Trump into thinking that Putin is already plotting grave
violations of a future Ukrainian peace deal, abandon his mediating role
as a result, and then escalate the conflict.
It was already risky enough that Karaganov recently told Tucker that Russia will nuke Europe if the Ukrainian Conflict
continues since that could have been exploited by them for the
aforesaid purpose, but it’s altogether different for him to now call for
Russia nuking Europe after peace with Ukraine. Karaganov can write
whatever he wants, but eschewing calls for Russia to nuke Europe amidst
the US-mediated talks with Ukraine would preemptively avert the scenario that was described, so he should consider it.