Winston Peters 20%? Why NZ First Is Surging In 2026

Duncan Garner Podcast




The political landscape in New Zealand has just been turned upside down by a devastating new Freshwater poll. National has plummeted to 30 percent while Labor has climbed to 37, creating a nightmare scenario for the government just months out from the election.


In this episode, Duncan and the panel break down the "shark-infested waters" National has entered. We look at the very real possibility that Finance Minister Nicola Willis could lose her seat entirely if these numbers hold on election night. The team discusses if National will pull a "Jacinda Ardern" style move by replacing Christopher Luxon with fresh energy like Erica Stanford or Chris Bishop before it is too late.

Meanwhile, Winston Peters and New Zealand First are surging, eating into National's base as voters lash out over the cost of living. We also tackle the controversial $9 harbor bridge toll proposal and whether Chris Bishop’s housing backdown in Auckland is enough to win back the city.

00:00:00 - Introduction and the killer poll numbers 00:01:30 - Is Luxon's leadership under threat 00:03:00 - Nicola Willis and the list MP danger zone 00:05:30 - The rise and rise of Winston Peters 00:10:00 - Chris Bishop on Auckland housing and ownership 00:15:00 - The $9 harbor bridge toll controversy 00:23:00 - Can the government fix the cost of living 00:33:00 - Kainga Ora's surprising financial turnaround

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