Iran perceives the Gulf States to be easy targets, the Turkish Armed
Forces have thus far deterred Iran through their proven formidableness,
and Iran doesn’t want to risk Turkiye requesting the intervention of
its NATO and/or Azerbaijani allies in the war.
Andrew Korybko
Iran has attacked US bases in the Gulf States on the pretext that they were used to some extent by the US in its joint campaign
with Israel against Iran. By that standard, however, it’s notable that
Iran hasn’t attacked the US’ two bases in Turkiye; its airbase in
Incirlik and its radar one in Kurecik. Turkiye directly borders Iran,
after all, unlike the Arab Kingdoms on the other side of the Gulf or
nearby in Kuwait’s case. One might therefore expect that Iran would have
hit the US’ bases there by now. Here’s why it hasn’t:
1. The Gulf States Are Easy Targets, Very Vulnerable, & Low-Risk
Iran
believes that the Gulf States aren’t anywhere near as prepared for war
as Turkiye is, their economies can be shattered by drone strikes alone,
and their armed forces’ lack of military experience apart from some of
them fighting the Houthis means that Iran doesn’t think they could
retaliate all that significantly. There’s also much longer and worse
mutual animosity between them, especially given that Iran believes that
they’re also persecuting its fellow Shiite believes, than between Iran
and Turkiye by a long shot.
Nevertheless, the aforesaid
calculations might be mistaken and could come back to bite Iran
depending on how its conflict with the US and Israel evolves. For
instance, if Iran’s air defenses are destroyed by those two, then one,
some, or all of the Gulf States that it attacked might unilaterally or
in coalition with each other (even if some sit it out) carry out highly
publicized bombings of Iran for revenge. That would be a humiliating way
to end the war if Iran is defeated soon after even if it doesn’t
officially surrender.
2. The Turkish Armed Forces Have Proven Their Formidableness
Whatever
one’s opinion about Turkiye’s domestic and/or foreign policies might
be, it would be dishonest to deny how formidable its armed forces are
after years of battle against the now-defeated Syrian Kurds,
which at one time fielded their own unofficial armed forces at the apex
of their power. Turkiye also has experience fighting General Haftar’s
forces in Libya and speculatively against Armenia during 2020’s Karabakh Conflict. These deployments helped its armed forces perfect their drone warfare skills too.
Turkiye
is therefore able to deter Iran solely through its proven strength, and
if provoked, it could invade Iran just like Iraq did and thus throw its
armed forces into the dilemma of either letting them barrel through or
assemble in the field to stop them at the risk of becoming easy targets
for the US and Israel. Iran is already struggling to withstand those
two’s aerial onslaught so even the pluckiest newly decentralized units of the IRGC might reasonably think twice before targeting Turkiye and risking that.
3. Turkiye’s NATO Membership & Alliance With Azerbaijan Deter Iran
Even
if Iran as a state or one of its decentralized IRGC units
underestimated the formidableness of the Turkish Armed Forces, Turkiye
is a NATO member and also in a separate alliance with Azerbaijan, so
targeting the US’ bases there would risk massively expanding the war.
Turkiye could request Article 5 assistance, which some of the bloc’s
European members might provide with the expectation of Turkiye helping
them in the political fantasy of a Russian invasion, but all such aid
would be at Ukraine’s expense.
As for the Azerbaijani angle,
ethnic Azeris comprise the majority of Northern Iran, and there are
more of them there than in Azerbaijan itself. Azerbaijan might thus
intervene with Turkiye in what some consider to be “South Azerbaijan”.
Even if neither invades, at least not right away, they could still stoke
separatist unrest for “Balkanization”
purposes and to further weaken the country amidst US-Israeli strikes.
NATO’s and/or Azerbaijan’s involvement through Turkiye might therefore
prove too much for Iran to handle.
Simply
put, the Gulf States are viewed by Iran as collectively being much
weaker than just Turkiye itself, plus they’re incomparably more
vulnerable to being massively destabilized even by drone strikes alone.
This is the main reason why Iran has attacked them and not Turkiye
despite all of them hosting US bases. It also likely knows how
formidable the Turkish Armed Forces are and don’t want to mess with
them, let alone their NATO and/or Azerbaijani allies, whose direct
involvement could lead to Iran’s swift defeat.