NASA’s Moon mission moves forward, but the plan behind it is collapsing
By Alexander Ermakov, research fellow at the Center for International Security at the IMEMO RAS
Artemis II launches manned test flight around the moon © Getty Images / NASA via Getty Images
The
American Orion spacecraft, part of the Artemis II mission, has reached
the Moon. The journey took around four days, excluding the first day
spent in Earth orbit, and the return will take roughly the same time.
Yet
unlike the Apollo missions of half a century ago, Orion will not enter
lunar orbit. Instead, it will follow a so-called free-return trajectory,
looping around the Moon and using its gravity to swing back toward
Earth. This is the same maneuver that saved the crew of Apollo 13.
The
choice is deliberate. Artemis II is, above all, a test flight. NASA has
opted to minimize risk. Rather than sending Orion directly to the Moon,
the spacecraft first entered low Earth orbit using the rocket’s upper
stage, and then set off using its own relatively low-thrust engine.
Had
that engine failed, Orion would simply have re-entered Earth’s
atmosphere after a few orbits and landed. Its trajectory was
deliberately conservative: at its lowest point, the spacecraft skimmed
just 185 kilometers above Earth, effectively “clinging” to the atmosphere. Once the engine had fired successfully, however, repeated burns became less critical.
This
cautious approach comes at a cost. Orion hasn’t passed particularly
close to the Moon. Its nearest approach was about 6,500 kilometers,
nearly twice the Moon’s diameter. As a result, expectations of
spectacular imagery should be tempered. The mission’s lunar science
component is largely symbolic. Its real purpose is to test systems and
procedures.
Even so, Artemis II has set a record. Never before
have humans travelled so far from Earth. The previous record, set by
Apollo 13, was surpassed on Monday. As Orion passed behind the Moon,
communications were lost for around 40 minutes. Splashdown in the
Pacific is scheduled for Saturday.
So far, the flight itself has proceeded without major incident. A few
technical glitches have been reported, but nothing unusual for a
mission of this complexity. On the ground, however, the situation is far
less stable.
The most significant recent development is not in
space, but in Washington. The US lunar program is undergoing a
fundamental overhaul.
On March 24, NASA Director Jared Isaacman
unveiled the ‘Ignition’ initiative. In practice, this marks the end of
Artemis as it was originally conceived in 2019.
The first sign of
change came with the announcement that Artemis III, previously scheduled
for 2028, would be brought forward to 2027, but without a lunar
landing. Instead, the mission will focus on testing lunar landers in
near-Earth orbit.
Two competing systems are currently under
development: one by SpaceX, the other by Blue Origin. If at least one is
ready, NASA will proceed. Orion will dock with the lander or landers,
conduct maneuvers, and test control systems. The mission could last up
to three weeks.
A human landing is now pushed back to Artemis IV,
planned for 2028. That mission, if it proceeds on schedule, will see two
astronauts spend up to a week on the lunar surface, while two others
remain in orbit, comfortably exceeding the Apollo 17 record of three
days.
There are also tentative plans for an Artemis V mission in
the same year, although given the program’s history of delays, this
seems optimistic at best. More striking, however, is what has been
removed. The Lunar Gateway, a small space station intended to orbit the
Moon, has effectively been cancelled.
This isn’t entirely surprising. The Gateway concept has long
attracted criticism. Its highly elliptical orbit would place it far from
the Moon for most of the time, limiting its usefulness for surface
operations. In some scenarios, even evacuating astronauts from the Moon
to the station would have been impractical.
Yet the Gateway was
deeply embedded in US planning. Its origins go back to earlier programs
under the Obama administration, when it was conceived less as a lunar
outpost and more as a stepping stone to deep space. The Moon, in this
context, was merely a convenient staging point.
Integrating
Gateway into the Artemis program created additional complications.
Orion, for example, was designed with a relatively weak engine,
optimized for reaching the Gateway’s energy-efficient orbit rather than
operating flexibly around the Moon.
Meanwhile, the size of
SpaceX’s proposed lander raised serious technical questions about
docking with such a small station. Despite these issues, significant
funds have already been invested in Gateway. To address concerns about
wasted resources, NASA now plans to repurpose its components.
One
proposal is particularly ambitious: combining the station’s propulsion
system with a prototype nuclear reactor and a descent module equipped
with four helicopters, creating a new spacecraft designated SR-1
Freedom. This would be sent to Mars as early as December 2028.
In
theory, it would become the first unmanned interplanetary station
powered by a nuclear reactor. In practice, the timeline appears highly
optimistic. Even by the standards of the space industry, such a project
would be challenging. And NASA’s budget remains constrained, with
priority still given to achieving a lunar landing.
At the same time, the United States is planning a major expansion of
unmanned lunar missions. By the end of 2028, more than twenty landers
are expected to be sent to the Moon, carrying equipment for the early
stages of a permanent base. These include rovers, lunar vehicles, and
so-called “hopper” drones; rocket-powered craft designed to
survey terrain where conventional drones cannot operate. Additional
communications and observation satellites are also planned for lunar
orbit.
Looking further ahead, US ambitions remain expansive. By
around 2033, according to current plans, a permanent lunar base could be
established, with astronauts working there for up to a month at a time.
The base would be powered in part by a small nuclear reactor, and its
primary purpose would be to test the use of lunar resources.
All
of this aligns with the broader direction of US space policy. In
December 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled
‘Ensuring American Space Superiority’. The objective is clear: to secure
technological and strategic dominance in space.
The scale of
these ambitions is impressive. But so too are the uncertainties. Artemis
II may be proceeding according to plan. The program as a whole is not.