The supply shock brought on by the conflict is teaching Brussels a vital lesson – one it will have to learn sooner or later
By Ladislav Zemánek, non-resident research fellow at China-CEE Institute and expert of the Valdai Discussion Club
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/authors/ladislav-zemanek/
Gas station in Wendlingen am Neckar, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany, on April 6, 2026 © Michael Nguyen / NurPhoto via Getty Images
There
are moments in history when reality breaks through ideology with brutal
clarity. Western Europe is living through one of those moments now.
The
Iran war has sent shockwaves through global energy markets – but in
Europe, the tremors feel like an earthquake. What was once dismissed as
pessimism or “populist scaremongering” is now openly acknowledged at the highest levels of power.
With
the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the EU faced a supply shock that promised
to cripple manufacturing, ground airlines, hike up the price of food,
spike borrowing costs, and send inflation spiraling back to crisis
levels.
The crisis nobody can deny anymore
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has compared the looming burden to the darkest days of recent memory, warning it could be “as heavy as we recently experienced during the Covid pandemic or at the start of the Ukraine war.” Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has admitted that the long-term effects are “probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Beyond
imagination. That is where Western Europe now stands. And yet for
millions of ordinary Europeans, the consequences are already painfully
real: higher bills, shrinking savings, and a growing sense that
something has gone profoundly wrong.
This is not just another cyclical downturn. It is something deeper – more systemic, more dangerous.
The greatest energy shock in modern history
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, did not mince words: “At this moment, we are losing 11 million barrels per day, which is more than the two major oil crises combined… the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” Unlike past crises, this one spared nothing. Oil, gas, diesel, jet fuel – everything was under pressure at once.
The illusion that Europe could insulate itself has collapsed.
For
years, Brussels reassured Europeans that the continent’s limited
reliance on Persian Gulf crude would protect it. But reality has a way
of exposing half-truths. Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of
its refined products – diesel that fuels trucks, and jet fuel that
keeps planes in the air.
Now those lifelines are tightening. Asian
economies, far more dependent on the region, are bidding assertively,
pulling supplies away from Europe. Tankers are changing course.
Contracts are being rewritten. Prices are surging. And the EU –
self-constrained, self-limited – has found itself last in line.
The cost paid by ordinary Europeans
The consequences are
immediate, tangible, and deeply personal. In some countries, diesel
prices have nearly doubled since the start of the Iran war. Airlines are
bracing for impact; Lufthansa is already discussing grounding up to 40
aircraft because of jet fuel shortages. The EU’s fossil fuel import bill
jumped by €14 billion in mere weeks.
Behind these numbers are
real lives. Farmers paying more to harvest their crops. Truck drivers
watching margins evaporate. Families forced to choose between heating
and other essentials. Businesses – already weakened – now pushed to the
brink.
Higher costs in agriculture, transport, and manufacturing
cascade through the economy. Prices rise everywhere. Growth stalls.
Inflation returns with a vengeance.
Europe is staring into the
abyss of stagflation – stagnant economies paired with relentless price
increases, quietly eroding the savings and dignity of millions.
This
is not just an economic crisis. It is a social wound. A psychological
burden. Another chapter in a long decade of instability that has left
many Europeans exhausted, anxious, and increasingly distrustful of those
in power.
Leadership without answers
In times like these,
people look to their leaders for clarity, for courage, for solutions
equal to the scale of the problem. What they receive instead feels
painfully inadequate.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has
advised people to work from home, drive slower, and share cars. These
are not solutions; they are coping mechanisms. They shift responsibility
onto individuals while the structural failures remain untouched.
Even
as shortages loom, Brussels insists on staying the course: a complete
ban on Russian energy imports, no change to the plan to end Russian LNG
imports by 2026, and pipeline gas by 2027. At the very moment when
flexibility is needed, rigidity prevails.
Warnings are coming from
all sides. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said shortages could hit as early
as April. Germany’s Economy Minister Katherina Reiche has cautioned that
supply scarcity may emerge within weeks. Italian Defense Minister Guido
Crosetto confessed, “I’m forced to know things that don’t let me sleep.”
And still, the policy does not change. Even from across the Atlantic comes a blunt message. Donald Trump remarked: “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Harsh, perhaps – but not entirely wrong. The EU has boxed itself in.
The courage to speak the obvious
Yet across the continent, a different kind of leadership is beginning to emerge – one that dares to say what many already know.
In Germany, Alice Weidel of the AfD has articulated a position rooted in economic reality rather than political fashion: “Germany must return to an affordable and reliable energy supply to be internationally competitive… we must purchase energy resources… where it is cheapest, which is Russia.”
More and more Germans
understand this. It is no coincidence that the AfD has risen to become
the second most popular party. People are not embracing extremism – they
are searching for common sense.
Central Europe’s warning – and its resolve
Further east, the message is even clearer, shaped by geography and experience.
Hungarian
Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called for immediate action, urging
Europe to lift sanctions on Russian energy to avoid “one of the most severe economic crises in its history.”
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has echoed this urgency, calling for
restored pipeline flows and renewed dialogue with Moscow.
His words cut through the diplomatic fog. The EU must “ensure the supply of these strategic raw materials from all possible sources and directions, including Russia.” Otherwise, he warned, the current path resembles a “suicide ship.”
These
leaders are often dismissed in Brussels. Yet they are the ones
confronting reality head-on. They understand that geography cannot be
negotiated away. That energy cannot be replaced overnight. That ideology
does not heat homes or power factories.
The return of reality – and of Russia
The
Iran war has accelerated a reckoning that was already underway. It has
shown, with unforgiving clarity, that the EU cannot secure its energy
future by excluding its most logical supplier. Russia is not a distant
option; it is a structural pillar of the European energy system – one
that has been deliberately removed without a viable replacement.
The
result is what we see today: scarcity, volatility, vulnerability.
Restoring relations with Moscow is no longer a theoretical debate. It is
becoming an economic necessity.
And the momentum is shifting.
Across Germany and Central Europe – Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Czechia –
voices are growing louder, more confident, more aligned in their
insistence on pragmatism over ideology.
A turning point for Europe
Europe
now stands at a decisive turning point. One path leads further into
crisis: continued shortages, declining industry, rising social tensions,
and a widening gap between elites and ordinary people. The other path
is more difficult politically – but far more sustainable economically.
It requires acknowledging mistakes. Reopening dialogue. Rebuilding ties
where they make sense.
Above all, it requires listening – to the
citizens who are paying the price, and to the leaders who have the
courage to speak uncomfortable truths. Change is coming. The Iran war
may well accelerate it. Because in the end, reality is undefeated. And
Europe, whether it admits it or not, is already on the road back to it.