Dr Nicolai Petro, Senior Washington Fellow at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island, believes the Ukraine conflict has entered a phase where battlefield realities are increasingly shaping the political future of the war.
By INR International Desk
Source: Interview with Dr Nicolai Petro on World Affairs In Context hosted by Lena Petrova.
Appearing on World Affairs In Context, Petro argued that the strategic trajectory currently favours Russia and that Western narratives increasingly diverge from conditions on the ground.
Petro, author of The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution, said Ukraine has been steadily losing ground since the failure of its 2023 counteroffensive.
Attrition Models Point To A Decisive Shift
According to Petro, several independent attritional warfare models now point toward the same conclusion.
"Ukraine's defeat is inevitable."
He cited the work of Peter Turchin and Warwick Powell, who have developed separate models examining logistics, production capacity, manpower, resources and force replenishment.
Petro argued that Russia continues to maintain what he described as an "insurmountable advantage" in these critical areas.
"Russia holds and has held for recent years and continues to hold an insurmountable advantage over Ukraine."
He contrasted this with what he described as Ukraine's growing manpower challenges and reliance on forced mobilisation.
Petro noted that while Ukraine faces increasing difficulties replenishing its front-line forces, Russia continues to rely on volunteers serving under what he described as attractive financial conditions.
Western Predictions Have Not Materialised
Petro said Western audiences have repeatedly been told since 2022 that Russia was approaching economic and military collapse.
"We have been told about Russia's imminent collapse all this time since 2022."
He referenced repeated claims that Russia was running out of manpower, drones, equipment and financial resources.
Instead, he argued that Russia's economy has remained resilient despite sanctions and has continued growing faster than many European economies during parts of the conflict.
"The Russian economy compared to Ukraine's economy is in much better shape."
Europe's Role In The Conflict
One of Petro's strongest arguments centred on the role of Europe in the war.
He rejected the notion that the conflict should be viewed simply as a war between Russia and Ukraine.
"This war is not just a war between Ukraine and Russia. It is a war fought in Ukraine between Europe now and Russia."
In Petro's assessment, Ukraine has become the battlefield upon which a larger geopolitical struggle is being contested.
He argued that Europe has been able to support the continuation of the conflict while avoiding many of the direct consequences borne by Ukrainians and Russians.
"Ukraine is the battlefield for this battle."
Petro offered a striking analogy.
"The EU is in the position of being the manager of a boxing match. It's the one making money off of the fighter in the ring who is getting pummeled."
According to Petro, European governments and defence industries have derived strategic advantages from observing Russian military capabilities, testing Western systems and expanding military production.
"The EU has a lot of benefits, its leaders believe, from this war so long as European troops themselves are not dying in the process."
The Danger Of Strategic Miscalculation
A major theme throughout the interview was uncertainty surrounding drone warfare.
Petro argued that political leaders are making strategic calculations without historical precedents to guide them.
"We do not have accurate models yet either militarily or for the political implications of drones."
He described the current environment as one where leaders are operating without understanding the true escalation risks.
"The most dangerous aspect is the fact that political leaders are making calculations without knowing what the risk is."
Unlike previous nuclear confrontations such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, Petro said there is no established framework for understanding the limits of drone warfare or how escalation pathways might unfold.
Russia's Red Lines
Petro argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin has generally avoided taking unnecessary risks and has consistently articulated clear red lines.
"Putin has demonstrated that he is not a risk-taker."
However, Petro warned that deterrence can create its own dangers.
"If you tell your opponent how far they can go but no further, then they will go as far as possible up to that line."
He suggested that some European leaders may increasingly believe Russia will continue to exercise restraint regardless of provocations.
According to Petro, this dynamic creates growing risks of accidental escalation.
Could Russia Change Strategy?
The discussion turned to recent attacks and whether Russia may alter its military approach.
Petro argued that Russia has so far deliberately avoided targeting Ukraine's political and military leadership.
"It has not been Russia's objective to date to actually destroy the political and military leadership of Ukraine."
He said Moscow's objective remains achieving a negotiated settlement rather than creating a failed state on its border.
"The only way in which I believe EU forces, NATO forces might become involved on the ground in Ukraine is if the political and military leadership of Ukraine were decapitated by Russia."
For that reason, Petro believes Russia has chosen to leave Ukraine's leadership structure intact while applying military pressure and encouraging negotiations.
The Forecast For Late 2026
One of the most significant predictions made during the interview concerned the second half of 2026.
Drawing on attritional warfare models, Petro suggested a critical tipping point may be approaching.
"The tipping point at which Ukraine's effective military capacity on the front collapses is expected in the latter half of this year."
He stressed that this forecast depends on multiple variables, particularly the evolving role of drones.
Petro described the conflict as a race between Ukraine's growing drone capabilities and Russia's broader advantages in manpower, industrial production and logistics.
"Are drones sufficient in the absence of sufficient manpower to defend a country or not?"
He said that remains one of the central unanswered questions of the war.
Zelensky's Reburial Of Andre Melnyk
Another major subject discussed was President Zelensky's participation in the reburial of wartime Ukrainian nationalist figure Andre Melnyk.
Petro focused on Zelensky's public statement accompanying the event.
"Colonel Andre Melnyk has returned to a different Ukraine to the one of which he dreamed."
According to Petro, the significance lies in what Melnyk represented historically.
He described Melnyk as a leading figure within the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists and an advocate of what historians call integral nationalism.
Petro distinguished integral nationalism from both fascism and National Socialism while acknowledging ideological similarities.
"This integral nationalism does promote the same basic vision that Melnyk espoused, which is a Ukraine for Ukrainians."
He outlined Melnyk's wartime role under German occupation and his subsequent post-war evolution, noting that after the war both Melnyk and elements of the Ukrainian nationalist movement abandoned their earlier political objectives and aligned with Western institutions during the Cold War.
The United States And The Changing Balance
Petro argued that Washington is currently attempting to occupy two positions simultaneously.
"The United States seems to be straddling both positions, one of co-belligerent and one of potential negotiator."
He said the Trump administration has reduced America's direct role in sustaining the war while simultaneously seeking a mediation role.
"The United States has stepped back. The EU has stepped in to fill the breach."
Petro argued that while Washington has reduced military support, Europe has assumed greater responsibility for financing and sustaining the conflict.
At the same time, he said the EU remains committed to what he described as achieving victory over Russia on the battlefield.
Why Negotiations Remain Central To Russia's Strategy
Petro concluded by arguing that Russia's strategy continues to rest upon the belief that battlefield conditions will increasingly force negotiations.
"Russia's strategy is based on insisting on negotiation as the necessary outcome of battlefield changes."
According to Petro, Russia believes current trends favour its position and that time remains on its side.
He contrasted what he described as Western political objectives with military realities.
"Europe insists these goals are vital and worth spending any amount for. But in order to justify that it has to have a plausible military strategy to accomplish this strategic victory over Russia. And it doesn't have one."
Petro argued that the coming months will test whether attritional warfare models accurately reflect battlefield developments.
"If we do not see this confirmed by the end of this year, then Russia's strategy must be called into question."
For now, however, Petro believes the more likely outcome remains continued Russian advances and increasing pressure for a negotiated settlement.
Looking Beyond The War
The interview concluded with Petro emphasising that discussions about Ukraine's future should extend beyond military outcomes and reconstruction budgets.
"We don't really talk enough about post-war Ukraine except as a matter of financial reconstruction."
Petro said future debates must also address political and social reconstruction.
"There's also political and social reconstruction that needs to be discussed."
As the conflict continues, he argues that understanding what comes after the war may ultimately become as important as understanding the war itself.
Source: World Affairs In Context interview with Dr Nicolai Petro, published May 2026.