The latest Post/Freshwater Strategy poll suggests New Zealand's political landscape remains finely balanced heading toward the 2026 General Election, with both major parties losing support while ACT and New Zealand First continue to strengthen their positions.
Report by elocal
While Labour remains the largest single party on 35 percent, the poll indicates the current coalition government would still narrowly retain power if an election were held today.
National Falls Below 30 Percent
National recorded 29 percent support in the survey, down one point since the previous poll conducted in February.
The result places Christopher Luxon's party below the symbolic 30 percent threshold and continues a trend of softening support that has been evident across several recent polls.
Labour also slipped, falling two points to 35 percent.
Despite the decline, Labour remains the country's largest political party and maintains a six-point lead over National.
Coalition Partners Gain Ground
The most significant movement in the poll came from the coalition's junior partners.
New Zealand First increased its support by one point to 12 percent, while ACT gained two points to reach 8 percent.
Combined, the gains by Winston Peters and David Seymour's parties offset National's decline and preserve the coalition's parliamentary majority.
On the projected seat numbers:
- Labour: 44 seats
- National: 36 seats
- New Zealand First: 15 seats
- ACT: 10 seats
- Greens: 12 seats
- Te Pāti Māori: 3 seats
That would leave the centre-right bloc with 61 seats, compared with 59 seats for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
The result highlights the increasingly important role of the smaller parties in determining who governs after the next election.
NZ First Continues Upward Trend
The poll will be particularly encouraging for New Zealand First.
At 12 percent support, the party is now polling well above the threshold required for parliamentary representation and continues to build momentum following a series of high-profile interventions on immigration, sovereignty, free trade, co-governance and international agreements.
The result also follows Winston Peters' recent "Keep Hope Alive" campaign speech, where he positioned New Zealand First as the country's leading nationalist political force.
With 15 projected seats, New Zealand First would hold considerable influence in any future coalition negotiations.
ACT Holding Its Ground
ACT's rise to 8 percent support also reinforces the party's position as a significant force within the coalition.
Although well below its 2023 election result, the increase suggests the party continues to retain a core support base while benefiting from voters seeking a stronger free-market and smaller-government agenda.
David Seymour's profile as Deputy Prime Minister appears to be helping maintain visibility for the party as election campaigning intensifies.
Hipkins Remains Preferred Prime Minister
Despite Labour's slight decline in party support, Chris Hipkins remains the country's preferred Prime Minister.
Hipkins recorded 44 percent support in the latest survey, although that figure is down two points from February.
Christopher Luxon narrowed the gap, rising three points to 37 percent.
While Hipkins maintains a clear lead, the movement suggests Luxon may be recovering some personal support even as National's overall party vote remains under pressure.
Election 2026 Remains Wide Open
The poll reinforces what has become one of the defining features of New Zealand politics in 2026: neither major party appears capable of governing alone.
Instead, the balance of power increasingly rests with smaller parties capable of attracting voters dissatisfied with both Labour and National.
For Labour, the challenge remains converting a polling lead into a parliamentary majority.
For National, the immediate challenge is reversing a decline that has now pushed the party below 30 percent support.
For New Zealand First and ACT, the latest figures confirm that both parties are becoming increasingly important players in determining the shape of New Zealand's next government.
With several months still remaining before voters head to the polls, the latest survey suggests the race remains highly competitive and far from settled.
Poll Details
The Freshwater Strategy poll surveyed 1,038 eligible New Zealand voters online between 5 June and 11 June 2026.
The reported margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.
RNZ Parliamentary Reporters
The Post / Freshwater Strategy Poll, June 2026