President Trump says he almost skipped the NATO summit, choosing instead to prioritise Turkey's President Erdogan in what Susan Kokinda argues signals a major shift in global geopolitics
By Susan Kokinda
For months, European leaders had been preparing strategies for dealing with Donald Trump at this week's NATO summit. According to Susan Kokinda, however, the biggest surprise was that President Trump nearly chose not to attend at all.
Speaking during the summit, Trump explained why he ultimately travelled to Turkey.
"I was very disappointed with NATO. And frankly, if it weren't held in Turkey, where my friend happens to be a very strong leader, a very strong person, it's possible that I wouldn't have attended. I felt I had to attend because of the fact that... he's gone all out."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan echoed that sentiment, describing Trump's presence as adding "might and strength" to the NATO summit.
Only two days earlier, another world leader had also focused attention on President Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin spent 85 minutes speaking with Trump by telephone on the United States' Independence Day.
Kokinda argues that the significance of that conversation extends well beyond the NATO meeting itself.
"Erdogan and Putin understand something European leaders and Mark Carney don't."
She says the week's events reveal a changing geopolitical landscape that many Western governments have yet to recognise.
Trump in Turkey
Kokinda points to President Trump's arrival in Ankara as evidence that Turkey now occupies a unique place within Washington's foreign policy.
Trump was welcomed with a large motorcade, mounted cavalry escort and ceremonial cannon salute while standing alongside President Erdogan.
By comparison, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney received considerably lower-key welcomes.
According to Kokinda, those contrasting receptions reflected Turkey's view of the leaders' respective importance rather than simple diplomatic protocol.
A different kind of ally
President Trump praised Turkey's regional role during the summit, describing the country as an important ally that had exercised restraint during recent Middle Eastern tensions.
"Turkey has been a great ally for us."
Trump noted that Turkey understood Iran well and had helped reduce tensions rather than becoming directly involved in conflict despite possessing one of the region's strongest militaries.
He also raised the possibility of renewed sales of F-35 fighter aircraft to Turkey.
That suggestion proved controversial because Turkey had previously been removed from the F-35 programme after purchasing Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system in 2017.
Kokinda argues that Turkey's willingness to maintain relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, despite pressure from other NATO members to choose sides, demonstrates an independent foreign policy increasingly valued by President Trump.
Turkey's strategic position
Rather than criticising every aspect of Erdogan's government, Kokinda argues that Trump recognises Turkey's strategic importance at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
She suggests Ankara's ability to maintain working relationships with both the United States and Russia, while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, has made Turkey a uniquely valuable diplomatic partner.
According to Kokinda, Trump nearly skipped the NATO summit altogether but ultimately chose to attend because Turkey "plays by its own rules."
She argues this reflects a broader shift in American foreign policy toward engaging sovereign nations according to their own strategic interests rather than expecting strict alignment with traditional alliance structures.
Europe Walks Into the Corner
Kokinda says European governments arrived in Ankara after months of preparing a coordinated response to a second Trump presidency.
She cites reporting describing a marathon meeting in Brussels where almost thirty European leaders debated whether the United States had become an unreliable security partner.
According to the report, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney communicated with European leaders from a British telephone number retained from his years in London, encouraging them to accept that "the old America isn't coming back."
She also notes reports claiming Britain's intelligence service, MI6, had provided profiles on how European leaders should manage President Trump.
Europe's new strategy
Kokinda says European leaders unveiled a new defence strategy centred on what they repeatedly described as "resilience."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte argued that Europe must increasingly provide for its own defence without relying on the United States.
They called for a stronger European defence industry capable of producing military equipment "at scale and speed."
However, Kokinda questions whether Europe retains the industrial capacity needed to achieve those ambitions.
The realignment of alliances
Susan Kokinda argues that President Trump's approach to foreign policy reflects a broader shift away from rigid alliance structures toward relationships based on national interests.
Speaking during the NATO summit, Trump suggested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could play an important role in helping resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, just as Turkey had helped reduce tensions involving Iran.
"It's going to get settled."
Trump pointed to Erdogan's ability to work with multiple sides simultaneously, reinforcing Turkey's position as one of the few NATO members maintaining active relationships with both Moscow and Kyiv.
Nations acting in their own interests
According to Kokinda, the emerging international order is increasingly defined by sovereign nations pursuing their own strategic interests rather than following predetermined geopolitical blocs.
She argues that Trump is adapting to that reality by dealing with countries "as they are," rather than expecting them to conform to traditional alliance structures built around permanent divisions.
In her assessment, Turkey's independent foreign policy represents this new approach more clearly than many Western European governments.
Putin's Independence Day phone call
A central theme of Kokinda's analysis is the 85-minute telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump on July 4.
She highlights comments from Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov, who said Putin congratulated Trump and the American people on Independence Day while recalling Russia's historical contribution to the development of the United States.
According to Ushakov, both presidents discussed the importance of preserving the historical ties shared between the two countries.
Revisiting history
Kokinda uses the discussion to revisit several episodes in American and Russian history.
She references Russia's policy of Armed Neutrality during the American Revolution, the arrival of Russian naval fleets in New York and San Francisco during the American Civil War, and Russian industrial reforms inspired by what became known as the American System of economics.
These historical examples, she argues, illustrate periods of cooperation that have largely disappeared from contemporary geopolitical discussion.
Cooperation beyond conflict
The discussion between Trump and Putin reportedly extended beyond diplomacy and security.
According to Ushakov, the two leaders also discussed the "colossal potential" for mutually beneficial cooperation and highlighted an upcoming joint Russian-American crewed space launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome as a practical example of continued collaboration.
For Kokinda, this demonstrates that dialogue between major powers can extend into scientific and technological cooperation despite broader geopolitical tensions.
Europe's industrial dilemma
Returning to Europe, Kokinda contrasts these developments with what she describes as the continent's weakening industrial capacity.
She points to declining German manufacturing output, expected restructuring within Volkswagen, Britain's shrinking steel industry, and new defence financing initiatives announced during the summit.
Her argument is that expanding financial institutions and defence lending programmes cannot substitute for a strong domestic manufacturing base capable of supporting long-term industrial production.
Kokinda's conclusion
Kokinda concludes that the Ankara summit demonstrated more than routine NATO diplomacy.
She argues that President Trump's engagement with Erdogan, his willingness to pursue dialogue with Russia, and Turkey's increasingly independent role all point toward a changing international system in which sovereign nations pursue flexible partnerships based on their own interests.
In her view, Europe continues to promote strategic autonomy while facing significant industrial constraints, whereas countries such as Turkey are positioning themselves to operate between competing global powers.
She concludes that the geopolitical assumptions that shaped much of the twentieth century are increasingly being challenged by a more multipolar international environment.
Source
Author: Susan Kokinda
Publication Date: July 8, 2026
Original Article: https://www.prometheanaction.com/the-midweek-update-he-almost-didnt-go-why-trump-snubbed-nato-for-erdogan-july-8-2026/