Europe is heading towards winter with gas storage at around 64% — well below the roughly 80% seasonal average of recent years — as the Iran conflict disrupts Middle Eastern LNG flows and competition for available supplies intensifies. With Russian gas largely removed from Europe's previous energy mix, analysts warn that a cold winter or further supply disruption could trigger another sharp increase in prices.
INR Report: Based on reporting by RT HERE
European energy traders are entering what one commodities analyst has described as “winter panic”, with EU natural-gas storage sitting at one of its lowest seasonal levels on record as another northern winter approaches.
According to figures cited by RT from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), EU storage was around 64% full as of Friday, compared with an average of roughly 80% at this point of the year during recent years.
The headline number does require some context. European storage levels naturally decline considerably during winter as gas is withdrawn, and the current position does not mean Europe is about to run out of gas.
But entering the heating season with substantially less stored energy reduces the buffer available if Europe experiences an unusually cold winter, weak renewable generation or another interruption to imported supplies.
And several of those risks are now appearing simultaneously.
Germany and Netherlands Particularly Low
Storage levels vary considerably across Europe.
According to recent Gas Infrastructure Europe readings cited in the report, Germany's facilities are only slightly above 50% full, while the Netherlands is around 45% and Belgium approximately 50%.
Dutch officials reportedly expect to miss their planned winter storage targets, with sluggish injections and weak commercial incentives making traders reluctant to purchase gas now and store it for later use.
The United Kingdom's facilities are at only around 30%, although Britain's energy system has traditionally relied much more heavily upon continuous imports and has considerably less storage capacity than some continental European economies.
That makes the European energy system increasingly dependent upon gas continuing to arrive when it is needed.
Gas Prices Have Already Doubled
Markets are beginning to price that risk.
RT reports that European natural gas has risen above €66 per megawatt-hour, citing Trading Economics — more than double its level earlier in the year.
European natural-gas price chart. Image: Trading Economics / Screenshot.
The change in sentiment has been rapid.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, told The Guardian that markets had remained relatively calm through much of the summer because traders expected traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return towards normal.
That expectation has deteriorated.
“As a result, the European natural gas market has run into a bit of a winter panic over the past week.”
The problem is not simply how much gas Europe currently possesses.
It is uncertainty over how easily those stocks can be replenished.
Iran War Adds Another Supply Risk
The immediate pressure comes from disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade normally travels.
According to the report, the effective closure of the waterway has disrupted Qatari LNG exports.
Qatar accounted for only around 6.6% of EU LNG imports during the first quarter of 2026, compared with approximately 57% supplied by the United States, so the direct European dependence on Qatar is relatively limited.
The wider problem is global competition.
If Middle Eastern LNG becomes unavailable or more difficult to transport, Asian buyers must compete with Europe for cargoes from alternative suppliers. That can drive prices higher even when Europe's own direct exposure to the interrupted supplier is modest.
Gas analyst Greg Molnar told The Guardian that the combination of lower inventories and uncertain supply increases Europe's vulnerability.
“Low storage levels are naturally increasing the risk of heightened winter price volatility.”
Europe Has Rebuilt Its Energy System Since 2022
Behind the immediate crisis lies a much larger structural change.
Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia was Europe's dominant external gas supplier.
RT reports that Russian gas accounted for approximately 45% of EU gas imports in 2021. By 2025, that share had fallen to around 12% as Brussels imposed sanctions and European governments deliberately reduced their dependence upon Russian energy.
Europe compensated through conservation, additional LNG imports, alternative pipeline suppliers and accelerated investment in renewable energy.
That diversification significantly reduced Moscow's influence over European energy supplies.
But it also increased Europe's exposure to the international LNG market — where cargoes can move towards whichever region is prepared to pay the highest price.
The consequences became stark during the 2022 energy crisis, when European gas briefly exceeded €300 per megawatt-hour, contributing to severe inflation and sharply higher costs for households and energy-intensive industries.
Sanctions Have a Price
The debate therefore involves both geopolitics and economics.
European governments made a deliberate strategic decision to reduce dependence upon Russian energy following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
That policy achieved its central objective: Russia's share of European gas imports fell dramatically.
But replacing relatively inexpensive pipeline gas with alternative supplies — particularly internationally traded LNG — has carried an economic cost.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently acknowledged that the loss of cheap Russian energy has damaged European competitiveness, particularly for industries competing against manufacturers in countries with substantially lower energy costs.
That does not establish that sanctions were necessarily the wrong geopolitical decision. Governments may accept economic costs to pursue security or foreign-policy objectives.
But those costs still need to be recognised.
Europe is now entering another winter in which the resilience of the replacement energy system could be tested.
The Weather Could Decide Much of What Happens Next
Europe's immediate prospects may depend heavily upon something governments cannot control: the weather.
A mild winter would reduce withdrawals from storage and could allow the continent to navigate the current shortage without a major crisis.
A prolonged cold period would produce a very different outcome.
Low wind generation could compound the problem by increasing demand for gas-fired electricity generation at precisely the time heating consumption is also rising.
Further disruption to LNG shipping would tighten supplies again.
Europe therefore faces a combination of three variables — weather, renewable generation and international LNG availability — while entering winter with a smaller storage cushion than usual.
That does not guarantee another 2022-style crisis.
It does mean Europe has less room for things to go wrong.
Does This Affect New Zealand?
Yes — although indirectly.
New Zealand does not import European natural gas, so declining EU storage does not threaten New Zealand's domestic gas supply.
The exposure comes through global energy prices.
Europe has become one of the world's major LNG buyers. When European countries urgently need additional gas, they compete with Asian economies for internationally traded cargoes. Higher LNG prices can then influence broader energy markets throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
The Strait of Hormuz adds another dimension because New Zealand remains dependent upon imported refined petroleum products.
If instability in the Middle East continues to affect shipping, oil production or international energy prices, the consequences can eventually reach New Zealand through petrol and diesel prices, freight costs, aviation, agricultural inputs and inflation.
There is also a broader energy-security lesson.
Europe's experience demonstrates that energy security is not simply about having suppliers today. It is about maintaining sufficient storage, diversity and domestic resilience when international supply chains fail.
That question has become increasingly relevant in New Zealand following the closure of the Marsden Point refinery and the country's transition towards a fuel-import model.
Europe successfully reduced its dependence upon one major supplier.
The question now being tested is whether the replacement system provides enough resilience when another geopolitical crisis interrupts a different part of the global energy network.
At 64% storage before winter, Europe may be about to find out.
Source: RT, 29 August 2026 — EU enters ‘winter panic’ mode as gas storage hits record low – Guardian
Independent reporting. Original context. Credited sources.