Andrew Korybko argues that disputed reports of a possible Russian drone attack on Southern Europe raise another possibility: could Ukraine stage a false-flag incident designed to implicate Moscow and intensify NATO involvement? Pointing to Ukraine’s demonstrated drone capabilities in the Mediterranean, he examines the incentives, escalation risks and why a direct crisis-control channel between Russia, the US and European NATO could be critical
Zelensky has an interest in implicating Russia in an attack on NATO so as to exploit the latest hysteria.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto debunked a recent report from Spanish media that cited an anonymous source close to the Lithuanian Defense Ministry to claim that the CIA allegedly believes that Russia is plotting drone strikes on Southern Europe. The context concerns the hysteria among some European leaders that Russia might soon test NATO’s resolve. Finnish President Alexander Stubb earlier declared that such talk is counterproductive to EU interests.
It was therefore refreshing that the abovementioned officials followed his lead instead of going with the narrative flow for whatever their ulterior motives might have been. Nevertheless, the fact that this story was planted in the media in the first place and by an anonymous source close to the Lithuanian Defense Ministry at that is unnerving, especially amidst speculation of an impending Ukrainian false flag seeing as how Kiev has an interest in implicating Russia in an attack on NATO so as to exploit the latest hysteria.
Earlier this year, Ukraine attacked one of Russia’s “shadow fleet” vessels in the Mediterranean from a drone base in Libya while one of its naval drones washed ashore on a Greek island in the Ionian Sea, both developments of which confirmed that Kiev has both aerial and naval drone capabilities in the area. It could therefore employ them for false flag attacks in Southern Europe in an attempt to manipulate European NATO (E-NATO) into at least more aggressively cracking down on Russia’s “shadow fleet”.
On that topic, “Putin Threatened Tit-For-Tat Seizures Of Foreign Vessels” in August during his visit to the Pacific Fleet headquarters in Vladivostok, the reciprocal escalation of which could be exploited by E-NATO to climb the escalation ladder even further at the risk of making a hot war by accident more likely. The unexpected breakthrough in Polish-Belarusian ties after their foreign ministers’ first meeting in a decade, however, could lead to a thaw in the New Cold War as explained here in detail.
Zelensky might not want that to happen for many reasons, not least of which is that he’d probably be coerced by the West into making some painful compromises to Putin prior to holding long-delayed elections that would likely result in him losing power given his unpopularity, ergo his false flag motive. Paired with Ukraine’s capabilities as mentioned earlier in this analysis, the scenario of it attempting false flag drone attacks against Southern Europe is uncomfortably credible, but the threat is still manageable.
Even if it can’t be averted, the creation of crisis-control channel between the US, E-NATO, and Russia as proposed in this piece here that was referenced in the previously cited one about a thaw in the New Cold War could prevent the hot war by accident that was earlier warned about, The news that this has been created might also deter Zelensky if he comes to believe that his potentially impending plots would fail to derail a partial thaw in tensions and might even backfire if evidence then implicates Ukraine.
Be that as it may, no such crisis-control channel presently exists, so the window of opportunity for Zelensky to authorize a Ukrainian false flag drone attack on Southern Europe for implicating Russia remains open. It’s therefore urgent that one is created otherwise he could spark World War III through these means in the worst-case scenario. With Finland, France, and Italy pushing back against the latest hysteria amidst the Polish-Belarusian breakthrough, the US now has a greater chance of mediating this.
Source
Andrew Korybko - Ukraine Might Be Plotting A False Flag Drone Attack On Southern Europe, 28 September 2026