The 2.2 million men that are currently on the run amounts to 6.8% of the Ukrainian population and is slightly larger than the percentage of Asians in the US.
Andrew Korybko
New Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov shockingly revealed
that 200,000 men have already deserted thus far and ten times more (2
million) are actively dodging the draft, which are probably an
underestimate but are in any case still very large numbers. To put that
into context, Ukraine claimed
in early 2025 to have had a population of 32 million, likely an
overestimate, so the 2.2 million men who either deserted or dodged the
draft amounts to at least 6.8% of the population currently on the run.
Rada Deputy Dmitry Razumkov claimed
during a parliamentary session last month that his country had already
lost half a million troops by then with an equal number wounded,
possibly also an underestimate, while Ukraine is thought to currently
field around 900,000 active troops.
All of this data enables observers to better understand the
significance of these “voluntary losses” since it should be clear by now
that 2.2 million more troops would have certainly made a major
difference for Ukraine.
That’s not to imply that it would have been able to reverse the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict that have trended in Russia’s favor since the epic failure
of Ukraine’s NATO-backed counteroffensive in summer 2023, but perhaps
it might have been able to decelerate the pace of its losses afterwards.
Ukraine could have thus also been in a comparatively better diplomatic
position too going into Trump 2.0 a year ago and that might have in turn
predisposed him to a relatively harder line towards Russia as well.
For
that reason, while the scale of its desertions and draft-dodging can’t
credibly be described as a game-changer, it can still be considered a
significant variable that adversely affected Ukraine’s fortunes. By
contrast, this was never a relevant factor for Russia, which hasn’t
conscripted anyone unlike Ukraine. On that topic, it’s worthwhile
reminding readers about Ukraine’s forcible conscription policy that’s
been made infamous by viral videos showing officials snatching young and
old men alike off the streets.
This footage and stories that
draft-eligible males (25-60 years of age) heard through the grapevine
are partly why 2 million of them decided to go on the run and dodge the
draft. They’ve also seen drone footage of the conflict zone and are
therefore well aware of how likely it is that they’ll be killed shortly
after being deployed to the front. These men might sincerely consider
themselves to be Ukrainian patriots in their hearts, however they
conceptualize it, but they’re not willing to die for nothing.
This segues into the plummeting popularity of the conflict among the populace and increasing support for a quick end thereto per recent Gallup polling. Trump just blamed
Zelensky for stalling peace talks, which is in direct opposition to the
will of the same people in whose name he still acts despite the expire
of his term in May 2024. Other than his authoritarian tendencies,
corruption is likely responsible for his obstinance since he’s thought
to be profiting from the conflict and might thus fear charges once it
ends.
Whenever he’s asked about the conflict, Trump
usually says that he wants to end it as soon as possible in order to
stop the killing, which it’s now known has spooked at least 2.2 million
Ukrainian men into either deserting or dodging the draft. The 6.8% of
the population that’s currently on the run is slightly larger than the
Asian population in the US (6.7%) per the last census.
The sooner that the conflict ends, the sooner that they can re-enter
the economy and help rebuild their country, unless they flee abroad
first.