The Sino-Indo rapprochement is still in its infancy, their territorial disputes remain unresolved, and India is under lots of pressure from the US nowadays.
Andrew Korybko
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov declared during his first press conference of the year that
Moscow wants to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) format. In his words,
“[RIC] still exists – though it has not convened in some time – but has
not been disbanded. We are working to revive its activities.” For as
well-intentioned as Russia’s plans are, and they make sense since those
three are the engines of the global systemic transition to
multipolarity, they’re unlikely to be fulfilled for three reasons.
First off, the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement, which began with their leaders meeting at fall 2024’s BRICS Summit in Kazan and then again at last summer’s SCO Summit in Tianjin,
is still in its infancy, revolving mostly around restrained rhetoric
towards their unresolved territorial disputes and increased trade.
Bilateral ties are moving in the right direction but they’re nowhere
near resuming anything resembling the strategic cooperation that their
leaders’ participation in another RIC Summit would imply.
The
next point is that their unresolved territorial disputes place domestic
pressure upon Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to eschew the
aforesaid cooperation until they’re settled, ideally in India’s favor
with China rescinding its claims and withdrawing from Indian-claimed
territory. Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping twice in as many
years was already a bold move in this domestic political context, but
resuming strategic cooperation absent a resolution of their disputes
might be a bridge too far.
And finally, India is also under lots of pressure from the US nowadays, which is due to Trump’s punitive tariffs on the pretext of India’s continued import of Russian oil and the US’ rapid rapprochement
with its Pakistani nemesis. Participating in newly revived RIC talks
with Putin and Xi amidst the ongoing Indo-US talks at this very
sensitive moment could potentially provoke Trump and might thus lead to a
further worsening of their ties. It would therefore be very surprising
if Modi were to agree to this anytime soon.
Having
explained the three reasons why Russia’s planned revival of the RIC
format is unlikely, it nevertheless shouldn’t be ruled out that their
respective leaders might meet on the sidelines of this year’s BRICS
Summit in India and/or the SCO Summit in Kyrgyzstan. Something as
superficial as them being photographed chatting with one another there
could suffice as alleged proof that Russia is making progress on this
goal even if their small talk has no significance beyond positive
optics.
Such was the case on the sidelines of last year’s SCO Summit in Tianjin, which was interpreted by some as an “informal RIC meet” despite nothing of substance being discussed. Russia and the Alt-Media Community, both in general but especially the “Non-Russian Pro-Russians”
therein, have an interest in presenting such talks as proof of RIC’s
revival for ideological reasons. Premature declarations of this can lead
to unrealistic expectations, however, which risk deep disappointment if
this never actually happens.
All in all, multipolar processes would further accelerate to the benefit of the World Majority
if RIC were revived, but this is unlikely to happen due to the
complexity of Sino-Indo relations and US pressure upon India right now.
Given the reasonable limits of Russian diplomacy, namely its
representatives’ respectful unwillingness to share unsolicited solutions
for resolving the Sino-Indo border disputes and inability to influence
Indo-US ties, Lavrov’s goal of reviving RIC will probably remain
unfulfilled for the time being.