Alex Krainer
Yesterday was a particularly busy day for American diplomacy. U.S. delegations held extremely delicate, high level talks in Geneva, involving two major crisis theaters: Ukraine and the Middle East, the former one being relatively simpler, from the U.S. point of view.
Trilateral Ukraine talks under Trump deadline
The
trilateral talks between Russian, US, and Ukrainian delegations started
yesterday and are due to conclude today, marking the third round of
such trilateral negotiations (the first two were held in Abu Dhabi in
January this year). The U.S. delegation was led by President Trump’s usual all-star line-up: man of confidence Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Ukrainian team was led by NSDC Secretary, Rustem Umerov, and Russia’s by President Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky.
The
talks are unfolding in the shadow of the ongoing war in Ukraine and
President Trump’s June 2026 deadline for the two sides to reach a
comprehensive agreement. They are focused on territorial questions and
“practical issues and mechanics of possible solutions,” and were
described as “tense.” With neither side inclined to make any major
concessions to the other, there has been no significant breakthrough
between the two opposed sides.
Meanwhile, Trump’s deadline
increases pressure on Ukraine to yield. Russia has the upper hand in the
conflict and is not dependent on American support in their conduct of
war while Ukraine very much is: if U.S. support is entirely withdrawn,
Ukraine’s defenses might collapse entirely, taking the Zelensky
government down with them.
British delegation attempts to crash the talks
The
fear that peace might break out has prompted the U.K. to send their own
delegation to the talks, led by none other than Sir Keir Starmer’s
National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell. Although the British were not invited to the talks, they turned up all the same and were seen loitering in the lobby of the InterContinental hotel
in Geneva yesterday morning. The footage shows Mr. Powell literally
sitting at the edge of his seat, nervously moving a teapot across the
table in front of him.
Recall, almost four years ago,
at the end of March 2022, Moscow and Kiev agreed on a peace settlement
framework. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu
facilitated the talks. Ukraine committed not to join NATO or allow
foreign military bases on its territory. The Russians agreed to
recognize Ukraine’s territorial integrity and withdraw their troops from
Ukraine (special arrangements were discussed for Crimea and Donbass).
The
resulting agreement was very detailed and spelled out in 19 pages. At
that point it seemed that both sides genuinely wanted a quick end to the
hostilities and peace. Naftali Bennett
would later testify that, “both sides were very interested in a
ceasefire,” that both were prepared to make considerable concessions,
and that a ceasefire was within reach.
That’s when Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to Kiev unannounced to make sure that the peace deal wasn’t signed. As Washington Post reported on 5 April 2022,
“For some in NATO, it’s better for Ukrainians to keep fighting and
dying than to achieve a peace that comes too soon or at too high a price
for Kiev and the rest of Europe.” Zelensky would have to “keep fighting
until Russia is completely defeated.”
Peace is just bad for business
That
was more than 1,000,000 Ukrainian casualties ago, but as far as Western
powers are concerned, the logic of Ukraine war hasn’t changed, and
peace remains equally unacceptable. As the bankster oligarch Jacob Wallenbergput it
during the “Hanalys 2026” annual Swedish-Finnish business summit on 11
February, “We’re not ready for peace in Ukraine.” Wallenberg is the head
of Investor AB, and he expressed concern that peace in Ukraine could
slow down European rearmament and lead to a loss of revenue for arms
manufacturers in his portfolio.
Sorry Ukrainians,
nothing personal, but you’re just going to have to continue fighting and
dying; our investment returns are at stake! This time, the cabal tasked
Jonathan Powell to intervene. Incidentally, Powell also worked as Tony Blair’s
Chief of Staff, for the entirety of his Prime Ministership (1997-2007).
And since we’re already discussing this whole fine network, it’s
interesting to note that it was Powell who arranged for Blair also to
meet with Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. and Iran playing for time
As
though all this wasn’t enough to handle, the Witkoff-Kushner dream team
also held discussions with Iran yesterday, starting around 9 AM Geneva
time. These talks were more delicate and indirect, mediated by Omani
officials in what was described as the second round in the most recent
series of negotiations. Iran was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the talks lasted approximately three hours, wrapping up by the early afternoon.
Although
both sides reported that they made “good progress,” or agreement on
“guiding principles” for potential future agreements, significant
differences remain between the two sides. The apparent conclusion of
yesterday’s Geneva round was that Iran should submit detailed proposals
to the U.S. in the following two weeks. No fixed date yet for a third
round. On the ground however, the tensions are continuing to rise. Even
as the two sides were holding talks in Geneva, U.S. military buildup
continued while the Iranian navy held exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.
The
Iranians even closed the Strait for a few hours, making an obvious
point: we can do this at any point and block some 25% of world oil
supply. That’s only one facet of the current impasse between Iran and
the U.S. that makes the situation extremely complicated for the Trump
administration as it could push energy prices far into triple digits
(per barrel of crude oil). And again, we have “strikes are imminent”
voices in the media fanning tensions to the markets, which always have
their own way of reacting.
Yesterday, the price of crude oil
barely budged when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Today, however,
they’re up almost 3% in pre-open trading. We’ll see how this situation
unfolds but I expect that both the Trump administration and the Iranians
will continue saber-rattling while avoiding an actual clash. That would
be better for peace in the region, but it could still send the oil
price significantly higher over the coming days.