Yesterday, President Trump delivered his 2026 State of the Union (SOTU) address, boasting about his record on immigration, the economy, tariffs and more. Trump spoke for an hour and 48 minutes, which was the longest SOTU since 1964. The President claimed credit for a “turnaround for the ages,” and called on Congress to back a number of his administration’s initiatives.
Alex Krainer
Not surprisingly, the overall tone of his speech was triumphant as he proclaimed a
“golden age of America” and framed his presidency in grand historic
terms, tying it to the nation’s upcoming 250th anniversary. Trump
claimed that the inflation is down to 1.7%, that gasoline prices are
below $2.30/gallon in most states, that mortgage rates are at four-year
lows, and that the stock markets are at record highs.
Of
course, he didn’t miss the chance to tout his border achievements,
claiming that they are the most secure in American history, like
nobody’s ever seen before. There, Trump may be closer to the truth:
border patrol encounters did apparently fall to their lowest levels in
over 50 years.
Foreign policy: making peace, gearing up for war
As
far as his foreign policy record goes, the President predictably took
credit for ending eight wars and brokering a Gaza ceasefire last
October. Truth be told, his administration did sue
for peace in a number of crisis flashpoints around the world, and
Trump’s count of 8 doesn’t even include diffusing the tensions in the
Balkans - perhaps the most serious threat to peace in the world.
However, all these interventions still feel like temporary patches,
rather than permanent peace deals. We’ll only know with time whether and
where permanent peace can take root.
Gaza ceasefire
might be the most controversial of these endeavors and many critics
around the world see it as an abomination of international law and
rights of the Palestinian people. At the same time, it is clear that
Oslo Accords and George W. Bush’s 2003
“Roadmap to Peace,” which were celebrated as great achievements at the
time, achieved something close to nothing, if not less than that.
The shadow of a big war
At the same time, Trump does appear
to be rigging the Middle East for an outbreak of war that could engulf
the whole region and even precipitate a nuclear global conflict. That
buildup is still on track, only slowed by plumbing issues aboard the
Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.
Just before Trump’s speech, secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director Ratcliffe briefed the Gang of Eight,
the eight most senior members of Congress, which was in itself a
worrisome development: by law and convention, this is the group whom the
executive branch must inform when a major covert operation or imminent
military action are being contemplated.
Rubio and
Ratcliffe held the briefing at the White House, discussing the
administration’s Iran plans. Some observers noted that the very presence
of director Ratcliffe in these discussions could be problematic: the
CIA chief rarely joins these briefings. His presence may suggest that
CIA’s active in anti-Iran operations.
The administration’s talks with Iranian representatives are scheduled to resume tomorrow, with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff having led last week’s round which failed to produce a workable deal. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
commented on the situation simply that, “this is serious” and that
Trump needs to “make his case to the American people.” Senator Mark Warner called on the president to explain what the administration wants to achieve with any military strikes.
The great impasse
The
U.S. position is that Iran cannot have any nuclear enrichment capacity
whatsoever, even for civilian energy purposes. Iran’s position, stated
publicly by Foreign Minister Araghchi, is
that they will never give up their right to peaceful nuclear technology.
Those two positions are structurally incompatible — there’s no obvious
middle ground, which is precisely what makes the military option seem
inevitable.
At the present time, a combination of factors —
largest military buildup near Iran since 2003, failed diplomatic round
last week, Gang of Eight briefing with CIA Director present, and
Democrats emerging visibly shaken — paints a picture of an
administration that has moved from posturing to serious pre-operational
planning. Whether it ultimately results in strikes or is a high-stakes
coercion play to force Iranian concessions in tomorrow’s talks is the
key question. Either way, this is the most serious Iran escalation in
decades, only partly overshadowed by the theater of Trump’s SOTU speech.
The golden age of America or not?
President
Trump’s signature style can be deceptive: he is prone to exaggerating
his positive achievements while minimizing failure, or even dressing it
up as success. To an extent, this is understandable: Trump is also the
nation’s cheerleeder-in-chief and the future of the nation may hinge on
whether he is convincing in that role or not. Building a sense of
achievement, optimism and bright future can galvanize the population and
mobilize their entrepreneurial spirits, willingness to take risk and
venture forth in a struggle for a better future.
However,
Trump has also painted himself into a corner vis-a-vis Iran and he’ll
struggle to disentangle himself and still look like a winner. Yielding
to the Mullahs could come with a huge political
cost and going to war is so fraught with risk, it could be as good as
gift-wrapping this year’s mid-term elections and handing them over to
the Democratic party, together with the 2028 Presidential elections. In
that case, all his good achievements, real or apparent, could dissipate.
The United States could end up with a Gavin Newsome presidency for the following 4 or 8 years, which would most likely end up looking like the Justin Trudeau
Prime-ministership in Canada. Trump’s approval ratings are already
quite low and anything short of a victory without a fight over Iran
could dent him irreparably and even the U.S. Olympic gold medal winning
Hockey team won’t be able to make him look good. A huge deal hinges on
tomorrow’s talks with the Iranians in Geneva.