This latest claim respectively conforms to the fears and fantasies of Russia’s foes and friends alike.
Andrew Korybko
The Washington Post
reported that “Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S.
forces, officials say”, and “The targeting information has included the
locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East”. This is
believable even if it’s being disclosed as part of a ploy for rallying
the public in support of the Third Gulf War that the US and Israel are waging against Iran. A related goal might also be to discredit Putin as a mediator after he recently talked to several Gulf leaders about ending the war.
Even though “Russia Was Never Iran’s ‘Ally’”
in the sense of having mutual defense obligations to it like the
preceding hyperlinked analysis explained, it understandably has an
interest in paying the US back for helping Ukraine target its own
assets, especially after last summer’s “Operation Spiderweb”.
As a reminder, Ukraine targeted elements of Russia’s nuclear triad, and
few believe that it did so without any targeting assistance from the US
when it’s already receiving such assistance in less significant
operations.
In fact, the whole Ukrainian Conflict
boils down from a Russian perspective to the US using Ukraine as a
proxy against it, one which is able to carry out increasingly audacious
attacks without the risk of World War III breaking out since the US
isn’t directly involved in them even though it’s indisputable
responsible. Likewise, it’s logical from their perspective to use Iran
as a proxy for the same reasons and with the same “guardrails” against
World War III in mind, but this wouldn’t come without risks if the
report is true.
It was earlier mentioned how Putin’s
role as a mediator would be discredited if that’s the case, and so too
might Russia’s careful regional balancing act within which the Gulf
Kingdoms occupy an important place if it turned out that Russia gave
Iran the intelligence for targeting the US’ bases on their territories.
Unless the US shared evidence with them, however, they might not jump
the gun by meaningfully distancing themselves from Russia even though
this might still loom in the background for some time.
The
greatest risk concerns how Trump himself might respond to this news. He
hasn’t yet done so at the time of this analysis’ publication, but he’ll
either ignore it, dismiss it as fake news, downplay it (perhaps even
cheekily by referencing how the US is doing the same to Russia vis-à-vis
Ukraine), or overreact to it. If he goes the last-mentioned route,
which is possible if his close friend Lindsey Graham and/or the CIA among others place enormous public pressure upon him to do so, then he might escalate in Ukraine.
It can only be speculated what form that could take since the Third Gulf War is the US’ priority, but he might at minimum stop mediating between Russia and Ukraine, while more extreme responses could be greater secondary sanctions enforcement and even some Tomahawk transfers to Ukraine. Russia’s plan since Trump’s return till now has been to dangle a resource-centric strategic partnership before the US in the hopes that he’ll coerce Ukraine into more, if not all, of Putin’s demanded concessions for peace.
The
past year of the aforesaid efforts would be in vain if Trump is
manipulated by anti-Russian hawks into at least pulling out of the peace
process and bilateral talks with Russia as well in response to the
latest believable report that Russia is helping Iran target the US’
regional assets. Once again, readers should be reminded that no evidence
has been shared with the public about this, but it respectively
conforms to the fears and fantasies of Russia’s foes and friends alike
so there might be some truth to it.