Andrew Korybko
He just ordered that some of Russia’s LNG exports to the EU be redirected to Asia, and if the EU doesn’t coerce Zelensky into giving him giving him more of what he wants in Ukraine, then there’d be no reason for him to not cut off Russia’s exports to them entirely for catalyzing a full-blown crisis.
The EU agreed
late last year to end Russian LNG imports by 31 December 2026 and
pipeline gas imports by 30 September 2027, with the possibility of
extending the deadline till 31 October 2027 in case storage levels are
below their required filling levels. This was done because “The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe”,
ergo why it encouraged this decision so as to then monopolize the
bloc’s energy market in tandem with its Qatari ally, another LNG
superpower.
Everything changed with the Third Gulf War, which began with joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran and has since seen Iran retaliate against all of the Gulf Kingdoms
on the basis that the US infrastructure on their territories is being
used in attacks against the Islamic Republic. The Strait of Hormuz is
now effectively closed
and the Gulf Kingdoms are scaling back energy production due to nearly
reaching their storage capacity. Importantly, Qatar is also shutting down its gas liquefication, which will take weeks to restart.
It’s
for these reasons that an energy crisis is expected which might surpass
the one during COVID and even the 1973 Arab oil embargo in terms of its
global disruption. With Gulf oil and gas pretty much out of the picture
for now, the only realistic recourse for stabilizing the market is to
return Russian resources thereto, which contextualizes why the US just temporarily waived sanctions on India’s purchase of Russian oil. The EU might also ramp up its gas imports from Russia ahead of its self-imposed deadlines.
With the impending global energy crisis in mind, Putin announced
last week that he ordered his government to look into the possibility
of redirecting European energy exports to Asia since they’re more
profitable and won’t soon stop importing Russian energy completely like
the EU will. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak then confirmed
shortly thereafter that the decision was just made to redirect some
(keyword) LNG exports from Europe to friendly countries such as India
and China.
The scenario of Russia cutting off gas exports
to the EU before the EU cuts off its gas imports from Russia is still on
the table, but Putin seems more interested in leveraging this
possibility in furtherance of his strategic goals than eschewing such an
opportunity just to punish his Western adversaries. To that end,
Novak’s confirmation that he decided to redirect some LNG exports from
Europe to Asia can be seen as proof of Putin’s intent, but he’s also
signaling interest in reconsidering if certain conditions are met.
These
are the fulfilment of his goals in Ukraine: Russia’s control over the
entirety of the disputed regions, Ukraine’s demilitarization and
denazification, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and no
foreign troops there after the conflict ends. He also wants to begin
negotiations on reforming the European security architecture so that
it’s less threatening to Russia and is suspected of wanting Zelensky not
to run in Ukraine’s next elections. Not all might be achieved, but some
likely will, though.
It’s at this moment when the EU is facing an
economic crisis caused by the Third Gulf War taking the region’s energy
exports offline that the bloc must decide whether it will coerce
Zelensky to give Putin at least some of what he wants in exchange for
him not redirecting LNG exports from them to Asia. The US might help
them with this too so as to maintain the purchasing power of one of its
largest markets. If they fail to do so, however, then Putin might
finally deal a long-awaited deathblow to the EU economy.