Zelensky remains recalcitrant towards Russia, is worried that a long war in Iran could give Russia an edge, and is therefore anxious to have EU aid replace US aid.
Andrew Korybko
Zelensky recently gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in which he spoke about the Third Gulf War, the Ukrainian Conflict, and his latest thoughts about security guarantees.
Regarding the first, he shared his worries that a long war could lead
to missile shortages for Ukraine, ergo the real reason why he hopes for a
swift end instead of the humanitarian one that he claimed. He also
admitted that deliveries were slowed down during last summer’s 12-Day War but not yet during the latest one.
Zelensky’s concerns echo one of the scenarios
outlined by information analyst and publicist Sergey Poletaev in his
analysis for RT about how “The Iran war could have unexpected
consequences in Ukraine”. For what it’s worth, Trump recently boasted
that “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and
upper medium grade, never been higher or better”, ergo why he claimed
that “Wars can be fought ‘forever’” now by the US. Whether that’s true
or not might be put to the test very soon.
Moving along, Zelensky then predictably recycled the false claim that Russia is Iran’s military ally, which was debunked here
but has wildly proliferated across social media as a means to discredit
Russia on a provably false premise among observers who don’t know any
better or were earlier misled
about this. He then pitched for more investment in Ukraine’s drone
industry in exchange for sharing its knowledge and experience with these
weapons, which the Gulf Kingdoms now require, with those who do so.
The
next subject of discussion was the Ukrainian Conflict. Zelensky
reaffirmed his opposition to both the territorial swap that the US
reportedly proposed and Russia’s demand for a Ukrainian withdrawal from
Donbass. He said that he agreed to freeze the front, after which the US
proposed demilitarized and free economic zones on both sides, but Russia
reportedly said that these can only be on the Ukrainian one. Debates
over these dimensions of the territorial question comprise a significant
portion of their talks.
Zelensky then turned to talking about
security guarantees, which are an equally sensitive issue, reminding his
interlocutor that Russia firmly opposes the presence of any foreign
troops in Ukraine. He then said that even the hypothetical deployment of
American ones wouldn’t suffice for sustainably ensuring Ukraine’s
security given the precedent of its Afghan withdrawal. That’s why he
wants strong Ukrainian defenses as the most reliable guarantee, but he
likely really does want foreign troops too.
When asked,
Zelensky said that the EU could potentially replace US aid, but only if
it first obtains licenses to produce American arms in Ukraine and then
rely on Ukraine’s experience in the military-industrial complex. None of
that has yet to happen, however, so he’s not getting his hopes up for
now. Much more realistic, he suggested, are “defense lines with walls of
drones” in an allusion to Poland’s efforts from late last year to informally expand the EU’s “drone wall” into Ukraine.
He
then ended the interview by confirming that he doesn’t plan to hold
elections till after the conflict ends, not during any potential
ceasefire, and said that he’s unsure whether he’ll run again. All in
all, the interview was an informative reflection of Ukrainian interests
and worries, the latter being self-evident among those who could read
between the lines. Zelensky remains recalcitrant towards Russia, is
worried that a long war in Iran could give Russia an edge, and is
therefore anxious to have EU aid replace US aid.