If the US oversees the optimization of the EU’s military-industrial complex, military logistics, and other defense-related matters with a view towards “dwarfing” Russia’s associated capabilities, then the challenge that Russia might face along its western frontier could mirror the one in June 1941.
Andrew Korybko
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated long-standing policy in a recent interview when he told
his interlocutor that “We are not going to attack any part of Europe.
We have absolutely no reason to do so. And if Europe opts to materialize
its threats to prepare for war against us and starts attacking Russia,
the president said that it will not be a special military operation on
our part, it will be a full-scale military response with all available
military means in accordance with the doctrinal documents on this
matter.”
To elaborate, Russia never had any plans to risk
World War III by invading the Baltic States and/or Poland, whose hostile
populations would also represent an enduring security threat in any
occupation. All such talk to the contrary is simply a reflection of what
can be described as the trauma from the darker periods of their shard
history with Russia, the details thereof being beyond the scope of this
analysis to expound upon. It’s sufficient to know that there’s no basis
to claims of militant Russian revanchism towards them.
That being said, there’s no doubt that Poland and the rest of its European NATO allies in general pose credible security threats to Russia, but their nature is evolving and typically cautious Putin
won’t authorize a first strike at the risk of sparking World War III.
Prior to Russia’s development of hypersonic missiles, US missile defense
infrastructure in Poland undermined Russia’s nuclear second-strike
capabilities, but the aforesaid arms have since restored strategic parity by neutralizing this threat.
The latest Polish-emanating threat to Russia concerns its unprecedented military build-up, which has led to it commanding the EU’s largest army at over 215,000 troops, with plans to reach 300,000 by 2030 and half a million by 2039 (200,000 of which would be reservists). “Germany Is Competing With Poland To Lead Russia’s Containment”, while the EU promulgated the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan” last year, and all these reserves will swiftly reach the Russian/Belarusian border due to the “military Schengen”.
This
refers to early 2024’s pact between the Netherlands, Germany, and
Poland for facilitating the movement of troops and equipment across
their borders, with plans for Belgium and France to join too. NATO’s Eastern Flank
is also rapidly militarizing, not only in terms of redoubling their
arms procurement and number of recruits, but also with regard to
physical infrastructure. The “EU Defense Line”, which links the “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield”, is quickly turning into a new Iron Curtain.
Most ominously, Trump 2.0’s National Defense Strategy
declares that “European NATO dwarfs Russia in economic scale,
population, and, thus, latent military power”, all of this just has to
be properly managed in order to most effectively contain Russia.
Although Russia is winning the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”
with NATO in Ukraine, it’ll be increasingly more difficult to maintain
its lead, and the potential “dwarfing” of its capabilities by the EU
could become an existential threat if a conflict ever breaks out.
It’s
with this scenario in mind that Lavrov strongly implied that Russia
would employ nuclear weapons in its response to any hypothetical
invasion by the EU. If the US oversees the optimization of the EU’s
military-industrial complex, military logistics, and other
defense-related matters, then the challenge that Russia might face along
its western frontier could mirror the one in June 1941. Unlike back
then, Russia is now a nuclear superpower, and that might be the only
factor that deters the EU from invading Russia.