He himself presumably knows that the group can’t realistically accomplish this, but by proposing as much to Modi during their call over the weekend, the Iranian leader might envisage this year’s BRICS chair India presiding over a joint statement that then kickstarts Delhi-mediated ceasefire talks.
Andrew Korybko
The Iranian Embassy in India reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their call on Saturday “for [BRICS]
to play an independent role in halting aggressions against Iran and in
safeguarding regional and international peace and stability.” He shared
this proposal with him since India is this year’s rotating chair. For as
well intentioned as Pezeshkian’s hope may be, it’s arguably misplaced,
and he himself presumably knows so as well.
It was explained earlier in the month how “Iran’s Strikes On The UAE Exposed The Limits Of BRICS Unity”.
In brief, they represent one member attacking another, but in response
to the attacked member reportedly allowing a third country (the US in
this case) to use its airspace and/or territory to attack a fellow
member first, and thus highlighted the reality that BRICS isn’t, nor ever was, a security bloc. Modi also condemned attacks on the Gulf Kingdoms without naming Iran but obviously in reference to it.
Nevertheless,
India isn’t a co-belligerent like the UAE and the other Gulf Kingdoms
are, unlike what many mistakenly believe. The viral video of the Indian
Army Chief admitting to backstabbing Iran by sharing the location of its
ship with Israel that the US later sunk was exposed as a Pakistani AI-assisted fake,
but the public’s perceptions were already manipulated by then. The same
goes for Pepe Escobar’s false claim that India “backstabbed” Iran and
Russia, which their ambassadors to India coincidentally debunked.
India sympathizes with the GCC and Israel, the latter of which Modi visited days before the Third Gulf War began with the US-Israeli surprise attack that assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader, just like Russia openly sympathizes with Iran per its Ambassador to the UK. Unlike Russia’s reported intel aid to Iran,
however, India isn’t providing the GCC, Israel, nor the US any support
whatsoever. Coupled with India’s BRICS chairmanship, this empowers Modi
to mediate with the US and Israel if all sides have the will.
According
to the Iranian Embassy in India’s tweet that was cited in the
introduction, Pezeshkian told Modi that the conflict will only end once
the US and Israel stop attacking Iran, after which there should be
“guarantees” against the recurrence of their aggression and ideally a
regional security framework. This is more or less what he told Putin and
the Pakistani Prime Minister earlier in the month as regards his three
terms for peace, which it was argued here are achievable via Russian-led creative diplomacy.
Israel and the US might not want Russia to get credit for this even if its proposals like the Collective Security Concept for the Gulf
are implemented, ergo the possibility of India taking the diplomatic
lead instead of Russia, but after Modi coordinates with Putin. The first
step could be India getting BRICS to agree to a joint statement on the
war, which is difficult given Iranian-UAE hostilities, but the precedent
of the 2023 G20 Delhi Declaration amidst the Ukrainian Conflict shows that it’s not impossible.
Through
these means, while BRICS itself can’t realistically end American and
Israeli attacks against Iran, India’s chairmanship of the group and its
neutrality in the Third Gulf War (despite its sympathies with the Gulf
Kingdoms and Israel) could result in a joint statement that kickstarts
Delhi-mediated ceasefire talks. To be sure, this is admittedly an
optimistic scenario that might not come to pass, but it explains what
Pezeshkian probably had in mind when he proposed to Modi that BRICS play
a role in ending the war.