Russia’s threat perception of the US is growing as a result of
stalled peace talks, increasing pressure to enter into even more
concessions than were already agreed to during the Anchorage Summit, and
the global systemic consequences of the Third Gulf War that the US
initiated.
Andrew Korybko
Last month, “Lavrov Soberly Acknowledged The Challenges Posed By Trump 2.0”, and now he’s warning about its plans for global dominance in a recent interview. In his words,
“[The US] is prepared to defend [its] wellbeing by whatever it takes –
coups, abductions, or even the killings of leaders of the countries that
possess natural resources that are of interest to the United States.
Our US colleagues do not hide the fact that oil is what they are after
in Venezuela and Iran.”
He observed that “They
operate in line with their doctrine of dominance in global energy
markets”, which alludes to what was written here at the start of the Third Gulf War about how one of its goals is to disrupt China’s import of Iranian oil (13.4%
of last year’s total by sea) or control it by proxy. In parallel,
Russia is being squeezed out of the European energy market, first in
Germany through Nord Stream’s destruction and now Hungary, Slovakia, and
even Serbia, to turn the continent into a captive US market.
As
such, “We are being forced out of all global energy markets.
Eventually, we will be left with our own territory. The Americans will
then come to us and tell us they want to be partners. However, if we are
prepared to carry out mutually beneficial projects on our territory and
provide Americans with whatever may interest them, while taking our own
interests into account, they, too, must take our interests into
consideration.” This is an allusion to the ongoing talks over a resource-centric strategic partnership.
Lavrov
is skeptical that any deal with the US is possible right now, however,
after revealing to his interlocutor that “Our US colleagues are telling
us: let’s settle the situation in Ukraine – we were ready to do so back
during the summit in Alaska, but they are not so sure about it now –
suggesting that we make more concessions, and vast economic
opportunities will open up to us after that.” This suggests that Trump
2.0 was emboldened since the Anchorage Summit into ramping up pressure
on Russia.
A week before his meeting with Putin in Alaska,
he hosted the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders at the White House, where
they signed a peace deal and jointly announced the “Trump Route for
International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).
This megaproject will expand Western – including NATO – influence
across Russia’s entire southern periphery in the South Caucasus, Caspian
Sea, and Central Asia. It’s therefore possible that Trump now wants to weaponize TRIPP to coerce more concessions from Russia.
Russia is in a stronger position vis-à-vis the US than before the Third Gulf War, however, since it’s poised to be one of the only oases of security and stability in Afro-Eurasia if the global energy crisis sparks a polycrisis
of starvation, unemployment, and unrest there. If the US doesn’t get
Ukraine to give Russia what it wants, then Russia might cut off energy
exports to the EU before the bloc’s 2027 deadline, which the US can’t
replace in full. That would deal a deathblow to one of the US’ largest trade partners.
Regardless of whatever comes from the Russian-US talks and no matter the outcome of the Ukrainian Conflict,
Lavrov is assessed that Trump 2.0 is “taking us back to a world where
nothing existed - no international law, no Versailles system, no Yalta
system - nothing. A world where might makes right.” In such a world,
“the weak get beaten. That sums it all up. We must be strong. And Russia
is a very strong country.” It’s therefore expected to fare a lot better
than most in Trump 2.0’s envisaged world order.