Trump handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause from the World Majority.
Andrew Korybko
Trump
declined to enforce the US’ de facto blockade on Cuba for a Russian oil
tanker that was carrying enough fuel to meet the island’s needs for
approximately one week. In his words,
“We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they have to
survive. If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have
no problem. I prefer letting it in, whether it’s Russia or anybody
else, because the people need heat and cooling and all of the other
things that you need.” There are five reasons for this:
1. Avert Potential Escalation With Russia
The
oil tanker that just arrived in Russia is an actual Russian tanker, not
another country’s that suddenly decided to fly the Russian flag when
the West placed pressure upon it like members of its so-called “shadow
fleet” have done in recent months before being seized. Trump might have
therefore calculated that Putin could potentially escalate tensions if
he authorized its seizure, which would inconvenience the US while it’s
embroiled in the Third Gulf War, ergo one of the likely reasons why he let it pass.
2. Please Putin To Keep Their Talks Going
Another
reason might have been for this to be presented as a goodwill gesture
for pleasing Putin in order to keep their stalled talks going amidst
growing skepticism of Trump’s intentions among Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian experts. By giving Putin something that he can pass off as a soft power victory, one which also earns thunderous applause from the World Majority, Trump could be showing him that he actually has good intentions so he should dismiss speculation about his motives.
3. Prevent A Full-Blown Humanitarian Crisis
There’s no doubt that the US’ de facto blockade of Cuba has already led to a humanitarian crisis,
but allowing a Russian tanker to provide the island with enough fuel
for approximately one week might have been meant to prevent a full-blown
humanitarian crisis that could have spilled over into Florida. This can
be intuited from Trump’s earlier-cited words. Basically, the US might
have decided to allow Cuba to import its minimum oil needs for this
reason, which keeps the crisis manageable from its perspective.
4. Reward Or Incentivize The Government
Another
reason why the US let Russia break its de facto blockade of Cuba could
have been to reward the government for whatever concessions they might
have made throughout their ongoing talks or possibly to incentivize such
concessions if they weren’t already made. As was explained here, “‘Regime Tweaking’ In Cuba Is The Most Realistic Outcome Of Its US-Instigated Crisis”,
which refers to political changes that retain the existing power
structure. This goal might therefore be closer to fulfillment than many
realize.
5. TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”)
It’s
also possible that Trump “chickened out” after Putin called his
supposed “bluff” over the de facto blockade of Cuba. To be sure, he
doesn’t “always chicken out” since the US is bombing Iran right now
despite the risk of blowback against its interests, but Russia could
inflict even more damage to them than Iran could so perhaps he decided
not to test Putin just to be on the safe side. Out of all the reasons
why he let Russia break the blockade, this is the least convincing, but
it’ll likely resonate with many.
All in all, the
US’ decision not to enforce its de facto blockade on Cuba for Russia
helps alleviate its humanitarian crisis, but this selfsame crisis
wouldn’t have occurred had it not been for the blockade. Trump also
handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause
from the World Majority at the US’ expense so there was definitely an
intangible cost to this decision. Nevertheless, the US still controls
the dynamics of Cuba’s humanitarian crisis, and it’ll only be alleviated
at Trump’s mercy.