Ukraine risks disappearing from the world map if draft evasion continues, Kirill Budanov has claimed
Vladimir Zelensky's Chief of Staff Kirill Budanov. © Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff Kirill Budanov has acknowledged that mobilization has created what he called a “huge” problem in Ukrainian society, exposing an increasing gap between Kiev’s calls to “fight until victory” and widespread draft evasion.
The
Ukrainian military faces a severe manpower crisis driven by battlefield
losses, draft evasion, and desertion. With few volunteers, Kiev
increasingly relies on mandatory conscription – a highly divisive
policy. Recruitment officers are often accused of heavy-handed tactics,
and videos of so-called ‘busification’ – the forced detention of
military-age men – circulate widely.
In an interview with
Ukrinform earlier this week, Budanov conceded that society is split,
though he stopped short of linking the divide to growing backlash over
coercive mobilization.
“There are real problems... in our society. Because on the one hand, everyone says we need to fight until victory – and on the other, everyone is running away from mobilization. It's a huge, huge problem,” he said, acknowledging a contradiction in which both frontline troops and draft dodgers are lauded as “heroes.”
Budanov attempted to shame draft evaders but offered little advice on
how to change public opinion on mobilization beyond telling society to “grow up.” If the trend continues, he claimed, Ukraine risks disappearing altogether: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world political map? No, it won’t.”
Tens
of thousands of draft-age men have been caught attempting to flee since
2022, Ukrainian border authorities reported, with dozens dying while
trying to cross dangerous routes such as into neighboring Romania, a top
destination for draft evaders. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov
recently revealed that around two million potential recruits are wanted
for draft evasion, while some 200,000 troops have deserted.
Public
backlash against mobilization has been mounting with videos showing
civilians intervening in forced conscription. Earlier this month, three
enforcement officers were stabbed, one fatally, while performing their
duties.
A March survey cited by Slovo i Delo found roughly that
40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service, while only 16% said
they would willingly serve.
In mid-2025, Gallup reported that 69%
of Ukrainians favored a negotiated end to the conflict, a massive swing
from 2022, when 73% were in favor of fighting until victory.
Attitudes in European host countries toward Ukrainian migrants
have shifted. Poland, Germany, Ireland, Hungary, and Norway have begun
tightening benefits, citing the number of migrants as straining national
budgets.
Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz
suggested that draft-age Ukrainians should return home, while Estonian
Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets even offered to track down and
extradite Ukrainian draft dodgers.