Peter Magyar’s decisive win will reshape Hungary’s relations with both East and West
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban casts his ballot in Budapest on April 12, 2026. © NurPhoto / Getty Images
Hungarian
opposition leader Peter Magyar has pulled off a stunning victory, with
his Tisza party beating Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s FIdesz by more
than 16 points. The result is set to dramatically change Hungary’s
relations with the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.
Just over an hour
after polls closed on Sunday, Orban called Magyar to congratulate him on
his win. With 92% of ballots counted on Sunday night, Tisza was leading
with 53.72% of the vote, ahead of Fidesz with 37.67% – a result in line
with opposition-friendly pre-election polls.
Magyar campaigned on
ending corruption, funding public services, and restoring ties with the
EU. Orban promised to continue his program of tax breaks for citizens
and levies on corporations, all while pledging to keep Hungary out of
the Russia-Ukraine conflict. His campaign cast Magyar as a tool of the
EU, who would cut off Hungary’s access to cheap Russian energy and back
Brussels’ escalatory policies toward Moscow.
A record 77.8% of eligible Hungarians voted, the highest turnout in
any election in Hungarian history. Thanks to this unprecedented level of
participation, “the democratic mandate of the next National Assembly will be stronger than ever before,” Gergely Gulyas, the Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office, told reporters.
“What the result means for the fate of our country and the nation, and what its deeper or higher meaning is, we do not know now, time will decide,” Orban told supporters in Budapest. “No matter how it turns out, we, as opposition, will serve our country and the Hungarian nation.”
What does Magyar’s victory mean?
Will Hungary maintain close relations with Russia?
This
is highly unlikely. Magyar’s allies in the opposition media
collaborated with EU spies to run stories of supposed Russian
interference in the election, and Magyar led crowds in chants of “Russians, go home!”
Rhetoric aside, Magyar is unlikely to embrace a policy of open
hostility toward Moscow, but his desire to mend ties with the EU will in
all likelihood result in Budapest dropping its opposition to the bloc’s
€90 billion loan package for Ukraine – a decision that will be poorly
received in Russia.
Will Hungary get the cold shoulder from the US?
Viktor
Orban is a close ideological ally of US President Donald Trump, who
dispatched Vice President JD Vance to Budapest to campaign for his
reelection, and promised to use the “full economic might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s economy” if Orban won.
With
Magyar in charge, Hungary will no longer be the darling of the MAGA
movement, but relations between the two countries will likely remain
cordial.
Will Magyar open Hungary to more immigrants?
Highly
unlikely. Orban’s hardline immigration policies are exceedingly popular
in Hungary, and Magyar has attacked the prime minister on immigration
from the right, criticizing his decision to allow 35,000 guest workers
into Hungary from outside the EU. It remains to be seen whether Brussels
will pressure Magyar into accepting asylum seekers, and whether the
liberal Western media criticizes him as intensely on the issue as it did
to Orban.
How quickly can the EU release billions of euros it withheld from Hungary?
The
EU is currently withholding around €20 billion in funding from Hungary,
citing concerns over judicial independence, corruption, and Orban’s ban
on LGBT propaganda.
Magyar is on track to win the two-thirds
majority necessary to modify Hungary’s constitution and implement the
judicial reforms demanded by Brussels, but the EU will ultimately decide
if and when to release the money. Additionally, Magyar has stayed quiet
on LGBT issues, and any attempts to liberalize Hungary to meet the EU’s
demands may prove unpopular with Hungarians.
For Magyar,
accessing this money is crucial. His program of spending on healthcare,
education, and other public services depends entirely on the release of
the funds.
Will Hungary be able to cancel its contracts for Russian oil?
Russia
supplies almost 90% of Hungary’s oil and slightly more of its gas, and
provides nuclear fuel for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. The EU has
mandated that its member states completely cut themselves off from
Russian energy by the end of next year, but Hungary’s contracts with
Russia extend to 2035.
Magyar has promised to end Hungary’s
reliance on Russian energy, but only when the contracts expire. However,
he may be unwilling to continue Orban’s policy of obstructing EU
sanctions packages to secure exemptions for Hungary, which will
essentially force a cutoff before 2035.
Will the EU now be able to steal Russia’s frozen assets?
No.
Despite Orban being portrayed in the media as the sole obstacle between
the EU and its plans for Ukraine, the decision on whether to steal the
roughly €210 billion in Russian assets frozen in the EU is an unpopular
one. Leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Slovakia’s Robert Fico,
and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babis all oppose the measure, as does
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose country the assets are
impounded in.
As such, the EU is banking on its €90 billion
debt-financed loan to keep Ukraine afloat. With Orban out of the
picture, Brussels will likely be able to secure unanimous support for
the loan, unless Fico or Babis object.