The Strait of Hormuz did not actually close on 28th February.
The flow of oil from the Gulf never stopped.
And yet—prices at the pump surged.
What people are paying right now is not scarcity. It is not disruption. It is not supply shock.
It is profit.
By Ali C (Instagram: @aliscforever)
The Illusion of Crisis
An analysis by Rystad Energy, cited in the Financial Times on 14 March, confirmed that American oil producers are set to receive over $63 billion in revenue from this “war period” in March alone.
Jeffries investment bank modelling adds another layer:
- $5 billion added to cash flow in March
- Oil prices climbed roughly 47% above pre-war levels
- Projected 2026 free cash flow jumped from $99 billion to $162 billion
The beneficiaries are not hidden:
BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Shell.
What’s Actually Happening on the Water
Independent journalists went to the Strait.
Not analysts. Not desk-based commentators. People physically there.
Canadian journalist Dimitri Lascaris boarded a civilian vessel in Bandar Abbas and counted over 90 vessels moving freely in both directions.
Footage from Middle East Eye corroborates it.
Ships are moving—with permission.
There is no blockade.
The Data That Isn’t There
A Manhattan-based outlet, Citrini Research, sent an analyst directly into the Strait.
What they found should concern everyone.
- Satellite and AIS tracking data captured less than 50% of actual traffic
- Insurers were pricing a global crisis based on incomplete data
Let that sink in.
Half the ships weren’t even being counted.
Yet global pricing decisions—impacting billions—were being made off that dataset.
The Insurance Lever
Shipping doesn’t stop because ships can’t move.
It stops because they can’t get insured.
War risk premiums surged fivefold within 48 hours of strikes—before any real disruption occurred.
Insurance coverage:
- Previously: ~$25,000 per year
- Repriced: ~$30,000 per week
That is not a market reaction.
That is a system response.
A pricing mechanism—triggered before reality catches up.
Who Controls the System?
The infrastructure behind this pricing is not global.
It is concentrated.
- Lloyd’s of London intelligence network
- U.S.-based satellite firms (Spire Global, Orbcomm)
- A cluster of Western insurers controlling maritime risk models
A system that mandates tracking…
…then controls the data…
…then prices the risk.
The Result: Artificial Scarcity
Diesel prices across Europe surged:
- Netherlands: €2.58 per litre
- Ireland: €2.45
- Spain: +35% spike
- UK: +17% almost overnight
All while shipments were still en route.
Even on flawed data—this pricing was premature.
The Admission
When oil hit $100 per barrel, the message wasn’t hidden.
“The United States… oil prices are up. We make a lot of money.”
That is not analysis.
That is confirmation.
Pure Profit
U.S. shale producers have:
- No operational exposure in the Middle East
- No assets at risk
- Only upside
ExxonMobil alone:
- Profit jump from $2.1 billion to $2.9 billion
- Oil pricing increased over 65% since the war began
Nothing changed in supply.
Nothing changed in reserves.
Nothing changed in availability.
Only price.
The Bigger Play
Global oil producers are projected to receive:
- $1 trillion in additional annual revenue
- Over $60 billion in Q1 profits alone
This isn’t volatility.
This is extraction.
The Reality
There was no closure.
There was no collapse.
There was no shortage.
There was a narrative.
A data gap.
A pricing mechanism.
And a system that moved faster than reality—because it profits from doing so.
Final Word
The ships are moving.
The oil is flowing.
The supply is there.
The only thing that changed…
…was the price you pay.
Ali C
Instagram: @aliscforever