Russia isn’t at risk of becoming a Chinese vassal nor is India at risk of becoming an American one.
Andrew Korybko
Russia’s legal information portal recently published the details of last year’s “Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support” (RELOS) military logistics pact with India. RT’s Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) wrote a detailed analysis about it here,
drawing attention to how it “allows for the simultaneous deployment of
up to 3,000 troops, five warships, and ten aircraft to be stationed on
each other’s soil.” There’s more to it, however, as this analysis will
explain. Here are the five messages that RELOS sends to the world:
1. Russia & India Remain Each Other’s Special & Privileged Strategic Partner
Pepe Escobar falsely claimed in mid-March that India “betrayed” Russia,
yet that couldn’t be further from the truth after RELOS, which restores
Russia’s Old Cold War-era permanent military presence in the Indian
Ocean Region. Likewise, India will now obtain an unprecedented permanent
military presence in the Russian Far East and Arctic if it so chooses,
thus symbolizing the strength of their special and privileged strategic
partnership. Speculation about a rift between them is therefore bonafide
fake news.
2. Russia Is Preemptively Averting Disproportionate Dependence On China
Building
upon the above, India’s military presence in Russia’s Far East is a
matter of prestige for Delhi vis-à-vis Beijing even though there’s no
chance that Moscow would authorize offensive operations from its
territory. Nevertheless, the message to China and the rest of the world
is clear, and it’s that Russia is preemptively averting disproportionate
dependence on China. If it were already its vassal or on the way
thereto as some claim, then Russia would never allow India to deploy its
forces near the Chinese border.
3. Massive Japanese, South Korean, & Taiwanese Investments Might Follow
The Russian-US “New Détente” that’s being negotiated could see phased sanctions relief after the end of hostilities with Ukraine,
which could lead to massive Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese
investments in the resource-rich Russian Far East that Moscow just
signaled isn’t a Chinese fief as some claimed. Knowing now for sure that
Russia isn’t a Chinese vassal or on the way thereto as explained, they
might then feel more comfortable investing at scale there, thus
accelerating Russia’s “Pivot to Asia”.
4. Russia Won’t Let China Dominate The Arctic Like Some Claimed It Would
CNN
and others have long fearmongered that Russia would let China dominate
the Arctic upon becoming its vassal, hence the urgent need for NATO to
militarize the region. That was never a credible scenario, however, but
it’s now debunked due to RELOS allowing Western-friendly India to
establish a military presence there if it wants one. India very well
might do so too, not only for reasons of prestige (including vis-à-vis
China), but to present itself as a responsible stakeholder in the
Northern Sea Route.
5. India Has Now Become Russia’s Privileged Energy Partner In The Arctic
A key Chinese company pulled out of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2
megaproject in summer 2024 under Western sanctions pressure, which
deeply disappointed some in Russia, who expected that the People’s
Republic would show more of a spine in the face of these threats. With
India now poised to establish a military presence in the Arctic, thus
expanding their special and privileged partnership to this region, it’s expected to be given the first choice over all others for investments there once the sanctions are lifted.
These
five messages collectively show that Russia isn’t at risk of becoming a
Chinese vassal nor is India at risk of becoming an American one. To the
contrary, they’re once again relying on one another to preemptively
avert the aforesaid scenarios through the strengthening of their
complementary balancing acts, which takes the form of RELOS in this
example. That military logistics pact therefore accelerates multipolar processes and thus reduces the chances of a future Sino-US bi-multipolar world order.