Overview
New Zealand’s fuel shipping schedule is entering another quiet phase, with multiple ports now showing extended gaps between tanker arrivals.
While not yet critical, the pattern is becoming familiar — and it continues to highlight the country’s reliance on tightly timed import logistics.
Current Situation
Marsden Point remains relatively quiet, with only limited confirmed activity:
- STI Opera scheduled for May 1
- No confirmed follow-on arrivals
Tauranga remains stable for now, with no immediate concerns.
However, several ports are now showing extended gaps in scheduled tanker arrivals, particularly across the South Island.
Shipping Gap Tracker (Days Between Deliveries)
| Port |
Next Arrival |
Gap Duration |
| New Plymouth |
May 1 |
~26 days |
| Lyttelton |
May 2 |
~11 days |
| Timaru |
May 13 |
~22 days |
| Dunedin |
May 8 |
~12 days |
| Bluff |
May 5 |
~11 days |
Regional Breakdown
- Napier currently shows no incoming fuel vessels scheduled
- Wellington is down to a single arrival on May 2
- Nelson expecting next vessel May 3
- Christchurch (Lyttelton) waiting until May 2
- South Island overall showing thinner-than-usual coverage
Bluff’s final listed vessel is expected to carry heavy fuel oil, not standard transport fuels.
What This Means
At this stage, all gaps are considered “survivable” — but the concern is not immediate shortage.
It’s pattern consistency.
New Zealand is continuing to experience:
- Sparse forward scheduling
- Delayed visibility of incoming shipments
- Reliance on just-in-time delivery cycles
Analyst Commentary
“It seems to go on… we’re going to have to wait until these spaces get filled up on the schedule — and right now they’re not.”
“Is it survivable? Yeah — if we start to see more vessels arriving.”
Global Context
Uncertainty remains around international supply flows, particularly:
- Middle East export stability
- Refinery throughput in exporting nations
- Shipping availability and security risks
Questions remain over whether refined fuel exports will continue at consistent levels globally — and whether New Zealand may increasingly need to “wait its turn” in supply allocation.
Outlook
The current quiet period is expected to be temporary, but it reinforces ongoing vulnerabilities in the system.
The key indicator to watch:
Forward schedule density
Until more vessels appear on forecasts, the system remains exposed to disruption.
Closing Note
“All survivable… we just need to see more vessels on the forecast.”
Disclaimer
This report is based on independent analysis of publicly available shipping data, port activity, and industry sources. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, information may change and should not be relied upon as definitive or real-time supply confirmation. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, commercial, or policy advice.
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Dave Trotter is an independent Fuel Compilation Analyst and founder of Marsden Point News Radio. He tracks fuel tanker movements in and out of New Zealand using real-time shipping and port data following the Marsden Point Refinery closure. His work provides a factual, ground-level view of NZ’s fuel supply, focusing on imports, storage, and distribution across multiple ports. Dave publishes regular updates at www.davidtrotter.co.nz and via Telegram.