It’s manageable for now, but if it becomes a protracted problem and the US relocates its bases from Spain to “Major Non-NATO Ally” Morocco, then the US and the EU could find themselves backing opposite sides in a future Moroccan-Spanish conflict.
A leaked Pentagon memo suggested that the US seek Spain’s suspension from NATO for refusing to allow it access, basing, and overflight (ABO) rights during the Third Gulf War. Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchez dismissed the proposal while a NATO official said that there’s no provision for suspending members. NATO allies rallied around Spain as the BBC noted in their report, which also highlighted Sanchez’s criticism of US-Israeli actions and refusal to meet increased defence spending demands.
From the US perspective, Spain had already diverged by rejecting increased defence commitments, but denying ABO rights during wartime appears to have escalated tensions significantly.
From NATO’s standpoint, maintaining unity remains critical, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Any forced choice between the US and Spain could place the alliance under severe strain.
Spain is therefore at risk of being politically sidelined within NATO. In practical terms, this could mean reduced US support in the event of a conflict involving Spain’s North African territories, which Morocco considers disputed.
European nations may still attempt to support Spain through economic or military measures, but a divergence in US and EU positions could create a highly fragmented response.
A further complication is the growing strategic relationship between the US and Morocco. A new 10-year American-Moroccan defense roadmap raises the possibility that US military infrastructure could be relocated there.
In such a scenario, the US and EU could find themselves backing opposing sides in a future conflict, despite both being part of NATO. This would represent a significant escalation in intra-alliance tensions.
Spain’s domestic dynamics may also influence future developments. The country’s foreign-born population has now surpassed 10 million, with approximately 700,000 added last year, and recent policy moves include the decision to legalise around 500,000 undocumented migrants.
These demographic and policy shifts could, over time, influence Spain’s position on its North African territories.
The Bigger Picture
The situation highlights three emerging dynamics:
- Spain facing pressure for diverging from US strategic positions
- NATO potentially prioritising alignment with the US over internal cohesion
- The possibility of US strategic realignment toward Morocco
For now, the situation remains contained.
However, if tensions persist and strategic divisions deepen, the current dispute could evolve into a structural fracture within NATO itself.
The longer the divide continues, the greater the risk that alliance unity could begin to unravel.