Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has used a major pre-Budget address to the New Zealand Business Association to outline what he described as a new era of “national resilience,” warning that the global rules-based order is weakening and New Zealand must urgently adapt to a more volatile world.
In a wide-ranging speech titled “Securing New Zealand’s Future,” Luxon argued the world is shifting from one governed by international rules to one increasingly shaped by raw power, security competition and national self-interest.
Speaking to business leaders in Auckland, Luxon said New Zealand could no longer rely on geography, goodwill or historical stability to protect its prosperity.
“We’re moving from a world ordered by rules to one ordered by power,” he said.
According to Luxon, three major global shifts are now reshaping international politics and economics:
- the decline of multilateral rules-based systems
- the rise of security-driven statecraft
- and a growing emphasis on national resilience over global efficiency.
He pointed to the United States’ “America First” posture, Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s growing Indo-Pacific influence as evidence the international environment has fundamentally changed.
National Security Reframed Beyond Military Defence
A central theme of the speech was Luxon’s attempt to redefine “national security” far beyond defence and military capability.
The Prime Minister argued New Zealand’s future security now depends equally on:
- energy independence
- fiscal credibility
- secure supply chains
- immigration management
- and social cohesion.
“We can't have prosperity, more jobs, more exports and higher wages without having greater national security,” he said.
Luxon warned New Zealand had become dangerously exposed to international energy shocks and singled out the Strait of Hormuz as an example of how overseas instability directly impacts Kiwi households and businesses.
Energy Vulnerability Now a “Live Crisis”
One of the strongest sections of the speech focused on energy security.
Luxon criticised previous restrictions on domestic energy development, including the oil and gas exploration ban, describing some regulatory settings as “handbrakes” that had weakened New Zealand’s resilience.
“Energy independence must be treated as an immediate national security interest instead of a contributing factor to a long-term climate strategy,” he said.
The Prime Minister confirmed the Government would continue pursuing:
- strategic fuel reserves
- LNG options
- the Huntly coal reserve
- and recently announced diesel storage measures at Marsden Point.
Luxon also warned New Zealand risked falling behind in an AI-driven future without abundant affordable energy.
Defence Spending To Increase
Luxon reaffirmed National’s commitment to significantly expanding defence capability if re-elected.
He confirmed the Government intends to:
- double defence expenditure as a share of GDP
- improve interoperability with Australia
- and deepen security partnerships across the Indo-Pacific region.
The Prime Minister linked defence investment directly to economic security, arguing trade and national security are now inseparable.
He also highlighted closer engagement with:
- India
- Singapore
- ASEAN
- NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners
- and Pacific regional institutions.
Immigration And Social Cohesion
Luxon devoted a substantial section of the speech to social cohesion and immigration, acknowledging growing public concern around migration pressures.
While strongly defending migrant communities and multicultural New Zealand, he also warned that immigration settings must prioritise national stability.
“When faced with a choice between social cohesion and stability and your bottom line, I’ll choose the former every single time,” he told business leaders.
Luxon specifically referenced:
- higher English language requirements
- tougher visa enforcement
- and policies favouring skilled over unskilled migration.
The comments suggest immigration could become a major issue heading into the next election cycle.
Budget 2026: Tight Spending, Bigger Infrastructure Push
Luxon also previewed key details of Budget 2026, confirming:
- operating spending would remain tightly constrained
- the Government still intends to return to surplus by 2028/29
- and debt would be pushed back toward 40% of GDP.
He announced:
- a $2.1 billion operating package
- and a larger-than-expected $5.7 billion capital investment programme.
The capital spending will target:
- infrastructure resilience
- defence capability
- schools
- hospitals
- and national security priorities.
Luxon argued New Zealand could no longer afford to rely heavily on offshore borrowing and called for stronger domestic savings culture.
He also signalled further KiwiSaver reforms may be coming, including eventual increases to employer and employee contribution rates to 6%.
A Speech Framed Around Global Instability
Throughout the address, Luxon repeatedly framed the current period as a historic “inflection point,” comparing today’s instability to previous global crises including the World Wars and Cold War era.
Despite the warnings, Luxon struck an optimistic tone, arguing New Zealand still possesses major strategic advantages if it acts decisively.
“We have what the world wants. We are a reliable and trusted partner. We have values worth defending and a future worth building,” he said.
But he also delivered a blunt warning:
“The question is not whether New Zealand is affected. It is. The question is whether New Zealand is ready.”