As the Indo-Pacific security environment changes, New Zealand is being forced to reconsider long-held assumptions about geography and national defence. This analysis explores why Japan may become an increasingly important defence partner as Wellington modernises its military capability.
eLocal Report | Originally published by The Conversation originally published by The Conversation under a Creative Commons Attribution licence. Read the original article here:
As China’s military expansion continues to reshape the Indo-Pacific security environment, it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that geographical distance alone can provide New Zealand with strategic protection.
A recent Lowy Institute analysis notes that China's DF-27 ballistic missile, with an estimated range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometres, is now operational and, with further development, could potentially reach the New Zealand mainland.
Those developments follow last year's Chinese naval live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, conducted without prior notification beneath a major trans-Tasman air route. More recently, New Zealand surveillance aircraft monitoring North Korean sanctions enforcement have been involved in confrontations with Chinese forces, while similar incidents have also involved Japan and Australia.
For a nation dependent on secure sea lanes, maritime trade and undersea communications infrastructure, the author argues these developments represent practical defence challenges rather than distant geopolitical events.
Is New Zealand Responding Quickly Enough?
New Zealand's 2025 Defence Capability Plan commits NZ$12 billion over four years, including NZ$9 billion in new spending, with defence expenditure projected to rise from just over 1% of GDP to more than 2% over the next eight years.
The programme includes new strike capabilities, replacement frigates, maritime drones and enhanced surveillance systems.
However, the article argues the implementation timetable may be too slow given the pace of strategic change across the Indo-Pacific.
The issue has also attracted international attention. At the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth criticised New Zealand's planned spending trajectory, while New Zealand ministers defended the government's timetable and fiscal approach.
Meanwhile, regional partners including Japan and Australia continue expanding defence investment at a faster pace.
Why Japan Matters
The article argues Japan is emerging as an increasingly significant defence partner for New Zealand.
Following recent legislative changes permitting greater defence exports, Japan is now able to supply advanced military equipment to partner nations. That includes the Mogami-class frigate, one of the leading candidates to replace New Zealand's ageing Anzac-class fleet.
Beyond the ships themselves, the author notes that procurement decisions also determine future relationships involving maintenance, software upgrades, logistics, training and long-term interoperability with regional allies.
Australia has already selected the Mogami-class, potentially creating opportunities for closer Australia–Japan–New Zealand defence cooperation.
Defence Choices Can No Longer Wait
The author concludes that New Zealand does not need to abandon its independent foreign policy, nor choose a single strategic partner.
However, the assumption that geographical isolation alone can provide long-term security is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
As regional tensions continue evolving, defence capability, strategic partnerships and investment decisions are likely to play an increasingly important role in New Zealand's national security and international credibility.
Does This Affect New Zealand?
This article speaks directly to one of New Zealand's most significant long-term policy questions: how should a small trading nation protect its sovereignty in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific?
Whether readers support higher defence spending or favour alternative approaches, the issues raised extend beyond military hardware. They involve trade security, maritime freedom, critical infrastructure, international partnerships and New Zealand's ability to protect its own interests in an uncertain strategic environment.
From an eLocal perspective, the broader question is straightforward:
Will the defence decisions New Zealand makes today leave the country stronger, more resilient and better prepared for the challenges of tomorrow?
Source
Author: Reuben Steff
Institution: University of Waikato
Publisher: The Conversation
Original Article: https://theconversation.com/distance-can-no-longer-be-nzs-defence-strategy-could-japan-be-part-of-the-answer-286036
Licence: Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY)
Independent reporting. Original context. Credited sources.