Fewer Ships, Bigger Questions: A Quiet Week, But The Bigger Picture Matters

New Zealand's fuel supply chain has settled into one of its quieter periods, but the vessels already scheduled tell an interesting story. While the number of arrivals has slowed, global refining trends and changing trade routes continue to shape what eventually reaches our shores.

Anyone who follows the daily updates will have noticed this past week has been relatively quiet. That's not unusual for this time of the month, but it does give us an opportunity to step back and look at the wider picture rather than simply counting ship movements.

The latest schedules suggest we are still on track for around 14 fuel carriers visiting New Zealand during July, although I wouldn't be surprised if that number increases as more schedules are confirmed.

The two charts this week tell an interesting story.

The first shows where our imported fuel is coming from during July so far. We've now received products from Australia, Malaysia, South Korea and French Polynesia, with South Korea continuing to be one of New Zealand's most significant refining partners.

The second chart shows where those products are being distributed around the country.

As expected, Wellington remains the busiest fuel hub, accounting for four separate port and mooring movements during the month to date. Tauranga follows with two, while Marsden Point, Napier, Nelson, New Plymouth, Timaru and Dunedin have each recorded a single delivery or movement.

For the South Island especially, things remain relatively quiet. Christchurch, Dunedin and Bluff are all still sitting below what would normally be expected for this stage of July, although several scheduled arrivals later in the month should improve those numbers.

One vessel that continues to interest me is Ardmore Encounter.

The ship has once again returned to Tauranga after previously departing. As I've mentioned before, I can't say with certainty what that movement represents, but repeated return visits naturally raise questions. One possibility is the collection of off-specification fuel, something we've seen occur before. Without firm evidence, however, it's important not to jump to conclusions, so for now I've left that movement out of this month's official delivery count.

Another vessel worth watching is Hafnia Petrel.

Its voyage from Brisbane towards Singapore, with Tauranga in between, suggests there could be more going on than a straightforward delivery route. Whether that involves transferring refined product or additional cargo remains unclear, but it demonstrates just how interconnected regional fuel logistics have become.

Looking ahead, the next week should see activity begin to increase.

Sea Odyssey is expected into Marsden Point from Yeosu, while Andean Sun, Radiant Ray, Challenge Pollux and PS Sydney will progressively work their way through New Zealand's coastal fuel network over the coming fortnight. That should bring many of the quieter ports back toward their normal monthly averages.

What continues to concern me isn't necessarily New Zealand's domestic shipping schedule, but what's happening internationally.

Reports from within the industry suggest global refined fuel production remains below what would normally be expected. At the same time, ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty around future supply chains.

Those two factors together deserve watching. New Zealand imports virtually all of its refined fuels, meaning events occurring thousands of kilometres away can eventually influence availability and pricing here at home.

For now, supplies continue to flow and the scheduled vessels suggest our distribution network remains healthy.

As always, I'll continue monitoring every tanker movement and schedule change as they occur.

Sometimes the quiet weeks tell us just as much as the busy ones.

David Trotter monitors fuel tanker movements around New Zealand using publicly available shipping information to help provide greater transparency around the country's fuel supply chain.