National Polling Slump Raises Concerns Inside Government

Senior National MP concedes current polling could cost him his electorate seat.


Photo: RNZ


Senior National MPs are openly acknowledging concern over National's continued weak polling, with Chris Bishop saying it is "highly unlikely" he would retain his Hutt South electorate if the latest RNZ Reid Research poll reflected election day. Despite the slump, ministers insist the Government remains focused on improving its message ahead of the November election.


Report by eLocal

National Party ministers are publicly acknowledging the seriousness of the party's polling decline after the latest RNZ Reid Research poll placed National on 28.7 percent—its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became leader.

The poll marks at least the eighth survey this year showing National below the 30 percent mark, intensifying pressure on the Government as it heads toward the 7 November general election.

One of the most candid assessments came from senior Cabinet Minister Chris Bishop, who admitted that if the current polling translated into election results, he would almost certainly lose his Hutt South electorate.

"We want to be higher, there's no doubt about that," Bishop said.

"And we're working really hard to do that."

His comments reflect growing recognition within National that declining party support is now beginning to threaten individual electorate seats as well as the party vote.

Deputy Leader Wants Stronger Result

Deputy Prime Minister Nicola Willis initially dismissed the significance of a single poll but later acknowledged National needed a substantially stronger showing.

She said the party's objective remained to maximise its vote in order to strengthen its position within a governing coalition.

"I want to see a stronger result than that."

Stanford: "Not Good Enough"

Education Minister Erica Stanford was equally direct, describing the result as unacceptable.

She said National needed to communicate its policies more effectively and work harder to convince voters.

Second Image: Erica Stanford. (File Photo) Photo: VNP / Louis Collins

Stanford said:

"We have to work harder, we have to be better, we've got to tell New Zealanders about our positive message."

When asked why National continued polling below 30 percent, she said ultimately that was a question only voters could answer.

Caucus Continues to Back Luxon

Despite speculation about leadership pressure, National MPs publicly rallied behind Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

Backbench MPs entering Parliament expressed confidence the party would recover before election day.

Northland MP Grant McCallum said the party vote would improve, while Northcote MP Dan Bidois argued that the only poll that truly mattered was election day itself.

West Coast–Tasman MP Maureen Pugh said Luxon remained a good Prime Minister and should continue leading the party.

Other MPs, including Rima Nakhle, Nancy Lu, and Carl Bates, also expressed confidence National would return to government and that Luxon retained caucus support.

Election Campaign Begins to Intensify

While individual polls do not determine election outcomes, sustained polling below 30 percent places increasing pressure on any governing party, particularly under New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system where coalition arithmetic becomes increasingly important.

The comments from senior ministers indicate National recognises it has significant work ahead if it is to rebuild public support before voters head to the polls later this year.


Source

Based on reporting by Lauren Crimp, RNZ.

Original article: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/758827/senior-national-mp-says-it-s-highly-unlikely-he-would-retain-his-electorate-seat-on-current-rnz-reid-research-poll-result

Lead Image: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Deputy Prime Minister Nicola Willis. (File Photo)RNZ

Second Image: Erica Stanford. (File Photo)VNP / Louis Collins

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