Christopher Luxon has called National MPs to an urgent face-to-face caucus meeting in Wellington as renewed speculation over his leadership threatens to engulf the party. The meeting comes after a difficult period for the Prime Minister, with National polling at its lowest level under Luxon and MPs reportedly discussing whether a change at the top is needed before voters go to the polls.
eLocal Report: Based on reporting by RNZ political editor Jo Moir.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has called National Party MPs to an urgent in-person caucus meeting in Wellington on Wednesday morning, saying growing speculation surrounding his leadership needs to be resolved quickly.
Luxon acknowledged the pressure publicly on Tuesday, saying it was clear from media reports and conversations that speculation about his position had increased.
With the general election only 90 days away, he argued that internal division risked becoming a major distraction for National's candidates, volunteers and supporters.
"It is my firm belief that division and disunity are a major distraction only 90 days out from the election," Luxon said.
He added that the uncertainty was unfair to New Zealanders and those campaigning for National when there was "so much at stake".
The caucus meeting has been called for 9.30am Wednesday in Wellington.
Significantly, shortly before Luxon's announcement, his team abruptly postponed an RNZ podcast interview that had been scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
A Difficult Political Week
The leadership speculation follows a series of political difficulties for Luxon.
Last week he apologised to Rotorua business leaders after accusing them of having a "parent-child mentality" and relying too heavily on government.
He also faced questions over his handling of comments by Foreign Minister Winston Peters, after Luxon himself described remarks about another MP as "racist".
Further criticism followed Luxon's use of a New Zealand Defence Force aircraft to return from a National Party fundraising dinner, while the latest unemployment figures provided another difficult backdrop for the government.
Then came Luxon's announcement during a talkback-radio appearance that a re-elected National government would hold a referendum on MMP — a decision RNZ reported had caught his own caucus off guard.
The difficulties continued this week when Luxon found himself discussing three possible taxes or levies that could be considered under another National-led government: a fuel excise increase, accommodation or "bed" levy, and bank tax.
That came immediately after Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis had held a press conference challenging Labour over fiscal responsibility.
National MPs Reportedly Working the Phones
The NZ Herald reported on Monday night that National MPs had spent the day speaking by telephone, with one unnamed MP saying they had received several calls concerning a possible leadership change.
According to the report, one MP went considerably further:
"There's going to be change in the top job. It's just a question of who is going to be it."
RNZ subsequently contacted around 10 National MPs and received mixed responses.
Some refused to comment, others denied knowing of any leadership activity, while one reportedly said the direct quotations appearing in media coverage suggested there must be some truth behind the speculation.
Another dismissed the reports as nonsense.
Bishop Backs Luxon
Chris Bishop dismissed the suggestion there were phone calls on Monday about the National Party leadership. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Cabinet minister Chris Bishop, frequently mentioned as a possible future National leader, publicly backed Luxon on Tuesday.
Bishop confirmed that caucus had been due to meet by Zoom but initially denied Luxon's leadership would be on the agenda.
He also played down reports of MPs working the phones over the leadership, saying National caucus members regularly spoke to one another about a range of issues.
Bishop was critical, however, of MPs anonymously discussing internal party matters with journalists.
"People shouldn't be talking to media like that," he said.
He insisted he was getting on with his ministerial responsibilities and said he had not spoken with fellow cabinet minister Erica Stanford — another name sometimes raised in leadership speculation — about replacing Luxon.
National MP Rima Nakhle also strongly backed the Prime Minister, describing Luxon as "the man and the boss" and saying she supported him "150 percent".
Questions Over April's Confidence Vote
The renewed turmoil is particularly significant because Luxon already confronted questions over his leadership only four months ago.
In April, speculation over whether he retained the confidence of his MPs resulted in Luxon putting his leadership to a caucus vote.
Luxon subsequently said the vote had settled the issue and that he had the support of his caucus.
However, the actual result remains secret.
On Saturday, Luxon was asked about suggestions the April vote had been 27 votes to 22.
He responded:
"I have the support of my caucus - I'm very confident in my leadership."
Bishop said on Tuesday that only two or three people knew the actual result and that he himself did not know the numbers.
Whatever happened inside that April meeting, the leadership question has clearly not disappeared.
Polling Pressure
One of the most important factors hanging over National MPs is the party's polling.
The July RNZ-Reid Research poll placed National at 28.7 percent, down 2.1 percentage points.
It represented National's fourth consecutive decline in that polling series and its weakest result since Luxon became party leader in November 2021.
For National MPs, those numbers are not simply an abstract measure of the Prime Minister's popularity.
If the party vote remains depressed, list MPs and candidates in marginal electorates face the prospect of losing their seats.
RNZ reports there has been concern among some National MPs since late last year that Luxon's personal popularity may be weighing on the party's support.
That creates a difficult calculation with the election now so close: whether changing leader would improve National's prospects or create even greater instability.
Who Could Replace Luxon?
Chris Bishop said he had not spoken to Erica Stanford about the leadership, nor had he spoken to any of his colleagues. Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro
RNZ's reporting identifies both Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford as politicians who have been discussed as potential leadership contenders.
Bishop has repeatedly denied plotting against Luxon and previously insisted that Luxon remained the best person to serve as prime minister.
There is no evidence in the RNZ report that either Bishop or Stanford is currently mounting a leadership challenge.
That distinction matters.
There is clearly leadership speculation within and around National, and Luxon's decision to summon MPs to Wellington confirms the issue has become serious enough that he wants it resolved immediately. But speculation over possible successors should not be confused with evidence that a particular MP has formally challenged him.
Why Wednesday's Meeting Matters
Luxon's decision to call an urgent physical meeting rather than allow the issue to continue through anonymous briefings and media speculation raises the stakes considerably.
National has only recently released its party list for the election, and the campaign is rapidly approaching.
A leadership challenge this close to polling day would be an extraordinary political gamble.
But allowing persistent questions about Luxon's authority to dominate the campaign could be equally damaging.
The Prime Minister himself has now effectively acknowledged that the uncertainty cannot continue.
Wednesday's caucus meeting therefore presents National MPs with a straightforward but consequential question:
Does Christopher Luxon still have sufficient support within his caucus to lead National into the 2026 general election?
The answer may determine not only Luxon's political future, but the shape of New Zealand's election campaign.
Source
Original reporting by Jo Moir, Political Editor, RNZ. This eLocal Report is based on the supplied RNZ article, including its original reporting and photography.