New Zealand First has fallen three points to 8 percent in the latest 1News-Verian poll after reaching 11.5 percent in RNZ's mid-July Reid Research poll. RNZ political editor Jo Moir argues the result leaves Winston Peters confronting a familiar strategic choice as the election approaches.
eLocal Report: Based on analysis by Jo Moir for RNZ HERE
NZ First Drops Back to 8 Percent
With less than three months until New Zealand votes, Winston Peters is facing a decision over where New Zealand First should concentrate its election campaign.
A 1News-Verian poll released this week put NZ First on 8 percent, down three points and level with the rising Opportunity party. National remained unchanged on 29 percent.
The poll was conducted from Saturday to Tuesday but ended early when 1News withdrew from the field following Christopher Luxon's decision to summon National MPs to Wellington. It surveyed 847 people rather than the usual 1000 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The result follows a strong period for NZ First. In RNZ's mid-July Reid Research poll, the party reached 11.5 percent — its strongest result in that polling series for nine years.
Moir argues the latest fall raises questions about whether Peters' recent political messaging is beginning to alienate some of the voters who had returned to NZ First.
Controversy Over Peters' Comments
The polling followed controversy over comments Peters made during Parliament's general debate after being heckled by Chinese-born Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan.
Peters told Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country” and added, “that's where they lie like a flatfish”.
The comments prompted a protest from the Chinese Embassy and criticism from opposition MPs and Peters' coalition partners. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon described the remarks as racist, while Peters stood by the comments.
RNZ also reported criticism from parts of the Chinese-New Zealand community.
Moir's analysis is that the political impact may now extend beyond voters who were never likely to support NZ First, with some of the party's existing supporters becoming uncomfortable with its recent messaging.
The NZ First Dilemma
Moir characterises the contemporary NZ First constituency as containing two broadly different groups.
One is focused on industry, mining, exports and economic growth, often prioritising those issues over environmental concerns. The other is a newer constituency attracted to culture-war issues and dissatisfaction with mainstream political institutions.
Deputy leader Shane Jones generally appeals strongly to the economic and industry-focused constituency, although there is considerable crossover. Jones has himself recently taken a harder line on immigration, including his controversial warning of a "butter chicken tsunami" associated with the India free-trade agreement.
According to Moir, some longstanding NZ First supporters are increasingly concerned that the party is concentrating too heavily on the newer constituency rather than the economic and sovereignty issues that have traditionally underpinned its appeal.
Shane Jones. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone.
National's Weakness Creates an Opportunity
There is another reason the choice matters.
National continues to poll below 30 percent, potentially leaving a significant pool of centre-right and traditionally conservative voters open to persuasion.
Moir argues that NZ First could potentially attract some of those voters, but that concentrating heavily on a comparatively small group of disillusioned voters may make that more difficult.
ACT also presents a threat.
The latest 1News-Verian poll put ACT at 9 percent, up three points — the same amount NZ First lost. Moir argues NZ First risks losing voters to ACT who want the current coalition returned but have become frustrated by Peters' recent controversies.
For NZ First, there is an uncomfortable historical precedent.
The Lesson From 2020
Peters entered the 2020 election as deputy prime minister and foreign minister but ended it outside Parliament.
Moir, who travelled with Peters during both the 2017 and 2020 campaigns, recalls markedly different strategies.
In 2017, Peters campaigned aggressively against both National and Labour while positioning NZ First as a potential kingmaker capable of restraining ACT on the right and the Greens on the left. It was a strategy aimed squarely at middle New Zealand.
The circumstances in 2020 were very different. NZ First was campaigning as part of a Labour-led government during the Covid-19 pandemic, with Jacinda Ardern enjoying exceptionally high personal popularity.
Peters initially promised a “relentlessly positive” campaign based on the coalition's achievements. However, after Covid restrictions disrupted conventional campaigning, including the town hall meetings that had long been a Peters strength, his strategy changed.
He increasingly attacked Ardern and the government in which he had served.
Moir describes that change as a fatal political mistake that was opposed by some senior NZ First figures, including Ron Mark and Tracey Martin. By election night, NZ First had failed to reach the threshold required to return to Parliament.
Her argument is that Peters now risks confronting a similar strategic decision.
Coalition Partners Fighting for Votes
The pressure isn't confined to NZ First.
The Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls this week reduced the estimated probability of the current coalition retaining enough support to form a government from 61 percent to 51.5 percent.
National has meanwhile endured its second leadership confidence vote in four months, increasing pressure on the party to convince voters that its focus remains on governing rather than internal politics.
ACT is taking a different approach. David Seymour has sought to project stability while promoting his own party's policies and avoiding excessive public criticism of National and NZ First.
The party also has former broadcaster Paul Henry standing as a candidate, giving ACT another prominent campaign voice who is able to criticise Luxon and Peters without carrying Seymour's responsibilities as deputy prime minister.
Henry has already demonstrated a willingness to generate controversy of his own.
Which Winston Peters Returns?
That leaves NZ First with a strategic decision as Parliament resumes next week.
At 8 percent, the party remains comfortably above the 5 percent threshold based on the latest poll. But with National struggling below 30 percent and ACT apparently gaining ground, there may be considerably more available to NZ First than simply securing another term in Parliament.
The question raised by Moir's analysis is whether Peters returns to the approach that has historically broadened NZ First's appeal — economic nationalism, industry, exports, regional development and positioning the party as a check on both major parties — or continues concentrating heavily on cultural and identity issues.
With less than three months until polling day, there is increasingly little time to find out which strategy voters prefer.
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Jo Moir, RNZ — “Winston Peters has a choice to make”
Original analysis: RNZ
Independent reporting. Original context. Credited sources.