With New Zealand voting under MMP on November 7, Andy Loader argues that centre-right voters should think strategically about their two votes. Challenging calls from Christopher Luxon and John Key to give both votes to National, Loader contends that voters should back National electorate candidates while giving their party vote to ACT or NZ First, arguing that securing a centre-right parliamentary majority must come before protecting individual MPs.
This morning on TV3 I watched Harry Mowbray explain why people should split their vote and what this will achieve in the upcoming elections on November 7th.
First thing I must say is that I agree 100% with Harry’s point.
I am sure that you have all heard the reports of the Prime Minister (Christopher Luxon) and ex-Prime Minister (John Key) telling us to cast both our votes for National (Electorate MP vote and Party vote).
I am not a Prime Minister nor have I ever been one and I am not a multi-millionaire but I do not think that you have to be either of these or some type of genius to realize that the first thing you have to do if you want to govern the country is to win the general election (i.e. gain a majority).
Like I have said many times, second sucks; you’re the first loser.
In relation to this comment I must say that the first mandatory requirement to form a government is to gain that majority either in the election or by being able to form a coalition with other parties, otherwise you are most likely to become the first loser.
On the basis of current polling numbers giving both votes to National means that the party vote is wasted unless they can get a huge increase in their voting numbers, which looks very unlikely to happen.
The PM and Ex-PM are asking us to give both votes to National and their justification for this is that there is a great likelihood of National losing many of its frontline MP’s as they are only list MP’s and as such will fail to get back into parliament due to the National Party not getting enough party votes to make this happen.
Their explanation was that if we do lose people who have a lot of experience and who have held major portfolios in the existing coalition government, they will quite likely be replaced by people who don’t have the experience and who we don’t know.
Surely they don’t have to be Einstein’s to realize that if they fail to win the election then all of the representatives in the house will be from the left side of politics.
In spite of this thinking it is still a fact that if this coalition government cannot get enough votes between the constituent parties then they will be in opposition after the election (i.e. First Losers) and all of the Ministers in the new government will be changed from the current line-up.
The other thing that I see is that this claim in regard to the existing members of the house, who may lose their seats, is just the same situation that was in place before they first gained their seats in the house.
I.E they were inexperienced and unknown in the most part yet they have managed to survive long enough to be considered as experienced and valued senior members of the current coalition.
The fact that they are most likely to lose their seats in the parliament no matter whether they are in government or opposition, comes down to the fact that the National party has relied on the list seat allocations to get them into the house in the past and now with their party’s poor polling results the reduction in the allocation of list seats will see them gone.
Stand up Mr. Luxon and your National Party Hierarchy, look in the mirror and ask the person you see there, what we could have done better.
If that person is honest in their answers then you will have a blueprint for how to fix this problem of losing valued members of the government parties.
But getting back to the basics of this situation, they must realize that the first objective is to gain a majority from the Centre right parties, and then negotiate an agreement that allows them to form a government.
The second objective will be to then decide which elected representative from those constituent parties will be elected Prime Minister.
The third objective is to decide which elected representatives from within those constituent parties will be appointed portfolios within that government.
None of these objectives will come to pass unless they manage to form a majority after the election and to do this the best chance (and on current polling numbers most likely the only chance) is to get all Centre right voters to split their votes and vote for the National electorate MP’s then vote their party vote to either Act or NZ First.
It doesn’t matter who is elected (either Newcomers or Experienced MP’s) if they can’t form a majority after the election then the Centre right will not have to worry about forming a government, they will have three more years in opposition to learn how to ensure this debacle doesn’t happen again.
We the voters/taxpayers of New Zealand will have three more years of a left leaning government coalition and the parties likely to form such a coalition have already told us that they will be a tax and spend government.
In my honest opinion we cannot afford to have the next three years under tax and spend policies.
The New Zealand Government spends approximately $22 million to $27 million per day just on interest servicing costs for its national debt.
Total Net Core Debt: Stands at approximately $182 billion to $188 billion (around 42% of GDP).
New Zealand's government net debt is approximately $16,714 per person.
New Zealand is facing a fragile and uneven economic recovery rather than an absolute financial collapse, though it is grappling with significant structural and cost-of-living pressures.
The credit Rating agency, Moody’s has placed New Zealand’s credit rating on a negative outlook; underscoring growing concern about the Government’s worsening fiscal position.
This is a warning that New Zealand can’t afford to simply spend more and borrow more.
Being placed on negative watch is a signal to investors that New Zealand is becoming a riskier place to lend to, which ultimately means higher interest costs for taxpayers.”
On the basis of the above and NZ’s current economic situation, we can’t afford to have a tax and spend government and I urge all voters to use strategic voting. Split your vote and ensure we get a centre right government for the next three years.