As election campaigning focuses on personalities, polling and promises, The Facts Machine is challenging voters to examine measurable results. Its ten leading voter issues provide a starting point for testing what successive governments have delivered and what the next government must improve.
Report by eLocal
The central question is not simply which political party promises the most. It is which policies can demonstrably improve the lives of New Zealanders.
Will this in fact make New Zealand stronger?
That question should apply equally to every proposed tax cut, spending commitment, regulation, infrastructure project and government reform.
The Facts Machine, through its KPI.nz performance dashboard, has identified ten leading voter concerns and linked them to historical indicators drawn from official datasets.
The indicators cover cost of living, health, the economy, unemployment, housing, the environment, poverty, crime, taxation and immigration.
They reveal trends that deserve serious scrutiny. They do not, however, automatically establish which political party caused each improvement or deterioration.
A fair assessment must examine the decisions governments made, the economic conditions they inherited, the time required for policies to take effect, and the outcomes experienced by ordinary households.
1. Cost of Living: Inflation Is Not the Same as Affordability
Cost of living: Annual CPI inflation compared with the Reserve Bank's target range. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The KPI.nz chart shows periods of inflation above the Reserve Bank's target range under successive governments.
Inflation accelerated sharply during the post-pandemic period before easing. More recently, inflation has risen again.
But even when inflation falls, prices do not necessarily return to their previous levels. A household can still struggle with groceries, electricity, insurance and mortgage repayments when the inflation rate is relatively low.
The relevant test is whether wages and disposable incomes are increasing faster than essential living costs.
National's emphasis on taxation, economic growth and competition addresses parts of this problem. Labour's proposals for direct household cost relief take a different approach.
Neither approach should be judged solely by its advertised dollar savings. The test is the net improvement in household purchasing power after taxes, costs and any wider economic effects.
2. Health: Immunisation Is an Important Warning Signal
Health: Childhood immunisation performance across successive governments. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
KPI.nz's childhood immunisation chart shows a substantial decline after earlier improvements, followed by a partial recovery.
This matters because immunisation requires functioning primary healthcare, timely contact with families and effective public-health delivery.
However, childhood immunisation is only one measure of healthcare performance.
Hospital waiting times, access to GPs, emergency department performance, cancer treatment and workforce availability must also be considered.
Labour's 2026 programme places greater emphasis on reducing patient charges and expanding access. National's programme emphasises targeted improvements to services and fiscal management.
The central test is whether patients receive effective treatment sooner, not simply how much money is allocated.
3. Economy: GDP per Person Is More Important Than Headline Growth
Economy: Changes in real GDP per capita. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The KPI.nz graph measures quarterly changes in real GDP per capita.
This is a useful distinction. An economy can grow because its population increases while producing little improvement in average living standards.
For New Zealanders, productivity growth is fundamental to sustainable increases in wages and purchasing power.
Both major parties recognise economic growth as a priority, but differ in their proposed balance between market reform, public investment, taxation and government intervention.
The missing evidence is a credible estimate of how much additional output, investment and real income each programme would generate.
4. Unemployment: The Benefit Figures Demand Closer Examination
Unemployment: Working-age adults receiving a main benefit, expressed as a percentage. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The supplied graph shows that the proportion of working-age adults receiving a main benefit declined during part of the 2010s and subsequently increased.
That raises questions about economic growth, employment opportunities and welfare policy.
However, the main-benefit rate is not identical to the unemployment rate. It also reflects health conditions, caring responsibilities, eligibility rules and demographic changes.
A meaningful assessment must therefore consider employment, hours worked, wages, underemployment and long-term benefit dependency together.
The September Ipsos survey found unemployment had become the fourth-largest public concern, identified by 21% of respondents.
5. Housing: A Generation of Affordability Pressure
Housing: Median house prices relative to household income. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The housing graph shows a sustained increase in median house prices over many years, with a particularly pronounced rise before the subsequent correction.
Household incomes increased much more gradually.
This is one of the clearest examples of a structural problem that extends beyond a single parliamentary term.
Planning restrictions, infrastructure funding, construction costs, land supply, credit conditions and investor demand all affect affordability.
The next government's performance should be measured by the number of homes ordinary working households can realistically afford, whether purchasing or renting.
A fall in house prices alone is not sufficient if interest rates, incomes or unemployment make ownership less attainable.
6. Environment: Emissions Intensity Has Improved
Environment: Emissions intensity measured against economic output. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The KPI.nz chart indicates a long-term decline in emissions relative to GDP across governments of different political compositions.
That suggests New Zealand has become less emissions-intensive in producing economic output.
But emissions intensity is not the same as total emissions, and neither measure fully captures freshwater quality, biodiversity or other environmental outcomes.
A comprehensive policy assessment must also examine energy affordability and reliability.
Environmental performance and productive capacity should be assessed together rather than assumed to be mutually exclusive.
7. Poverty: Material Hardship Measures Lived Experience
Poverty: Material hardship and severe material hardship indicators. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The graph tracks material hardship and severe material hardship.
It shows periods of improvement followed by renewed deterioration.
This indicator matters because it captures deprivation more directly than many broad economic statistics.
A household may be employed yet still struggle to afford heating, food, healthcare and essential expenses.
Policies should therefore be assessed on their effects on real disposable income, housing costs, access to work and the ability of households to build financial security.
The poverty series shown in the supplied dashboard extends only to the first quarter of 2025, so it cannot establish the complete position in October 2026.
8. Crime: The Trend Matters, but So Does the Victim
Crime: Recorded victimisations per capita over time. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The victimisation chart shows a significant increase followed by a decline from recent peaks.
This is relevant to assessing policing and public safety, but changes in reporting behaviour and the composition of recorded offences also matter.
A stronger analysis would separate violent crime, retail crime, burglary, family violence and repeat victimisation.
The performance test is whether people are safer in their homes, workplaces and communities, supported by consistent and independently verifiable data.
9. Taxes: Revenue Is Not a Measure of Value
Taxes: Core Crown tax revenue expressed as a percentage of GDP. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
Core Crown tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated across successive governments.
But a higher tax-to-GDP ratio is not automatically evidence of worse government, just as a lower ratio does not establish better government.
Tax revenue finances healthcare, education, infrastructure, policing and other public functions.
The real questions are what taxpayers receive, whether expenditure is productive, whether debt remains sustainable and whether taxation discourages investment or work.
This is also an issue on which New Zealanders have differing preferences. The September Ipsos survey found 44% believed they should pay less tax, while 45% considered their tax burden about right.
10. Immigration: Population Growth Must Be Matched by Capacity
Immigration: New Zealand's net migration trends. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The net migration graph shows substantial volatility over several decades, including large recent movements.
Immigration can help employers fill labour shortages, support international connections and expand the productive workforce.
It can also increase demand for housing, healthcare, transport and infrastructure.
The relevant performance test is whether migration settings improve productivity and living standards after accounting for those costs and benefits.
The question is not simply how many people arrive, but whether New Zealand has the infrastructure, employment opportunities and economic capacity to support sustainable population growth.
The Political Comparison
The major parties approach these challenges from different starting points.
| Policy dimension |
National-led approach |
Labour-led approach |
| Cost of living |
Tax restraint, growth, competition and supply-side reforms |
Direct household relief, public services and competition |
| Healthcare |
Targeted service delivery and fiscal sustainability |
Wider access, reduced patient charges and workforce investment |
| Economic growth |
Private investment, regulatory reform and productivity |
Public investment, services and economic development |
| Employment |
Workforce participation and business-led growth |
Employment support, training and public investment |
| Housing |
Supply and finance reforms |
Supply measures alongside tax and affordability policies |
| Environment |
Balancing environmental objectives with economic costs |
Greater emphasis on public intervention and climate policy |
| Poverty |
Employment, growth and targeted assistance |
Income support, public services and household cost reductions |
| Crime |
Enforcement, sentencing and accountability |
A combination of enforcement, prevention and social interventions |
| Taxation |
Fiscal restraint and limiting new taxes |
Changes to capital taxation and public-service funding |
| Immigration |
Labour-market and economic settings within coalition constraints |
Labour-market, skills and economic-development priorities |
These are broad policy distinctions, not verified forecasts of outcomes. Individual coalition partners have their own positions, and the eventual programme of government may differ from a major party's manifesto.
What the Polling Says, and What It Does Not
Ipsos's September 2026 Issues Monitor surveyed 1,003 New Zealanders and reported:
- Cost of living: 63% identified it as a leading concern.
- Healthcare: 44%.
- Economy: 34%.
- Unemployment: 21%.
- Government performance: average rating of 4.1 out of 10.
The survey also found that Labour was perceived as the party most capable of managing all five leading concerns, although its advantage over National had narrowed on four.
This is important evidence about public confidence, but it is not proof that Labour's policies would deliver superior results.
Equally, the historical KPI charts cannot be used to declare National the superior performer simply because selected indicators improved during National-led administrations.
Perception, historical correlation and demonstrated policy effectiveness are three different things.
Overall Country Direction: The Public's Verdict on New Zealand's Trajectory
Overall country direction: Survey responses indicating whether New Zealand is heading in the right or wrong direction. Source: The Facts Machine / KPI.nz.
The overall country-direction indicator adds another dimension to the performance debate.
Unlike the ten individual measures, it reflects public sentiment about the nation's trajectory rather than a specific economic or social outcome.
It is therefore useful as a measure of confidence, but it should not be confused with objective performance.
Public opinion can be influenced by household circumstances, political leadership, international events, media coverage and expectations about the future.
The question for policymakers is whether improvements in measurable outcomes eventually translate into greater public confidence and a stronger sense of opportunity.
Conclusion: The Results Matter More Than the Promises
The Facts Machine's ten performance indicators expose a fundamental weakness in New Zealand's election debate. Political parties are competing to announce what they intend to do, while voters have comparatively little discussion of what successive governments have actually achieved.
The evidence is not evenly balanced on every issue.
Healthcare provides a particularly clear example. Three major hospital waiting-time measures deteriorated substantially during the previous Labour-led administrations. Those measures have subsequently improved under the National–ACT–NZ First coalition, alongside improvements in cancer treatment and childhood immunisation.
That is a meaningful performance finding, even though the health system remains under considerable pressure and several targets have not been met.
The picture is less favourable to any single coalition when the assessment moves to household prosperity. Housing affordability, productivity, employment, living costs and material hardship reveal continuing problems that neither major political grouping has convincingly resolved.
The most useful conclusion is that the current coalition has demonstrated measurable recovery in healthcare delivery, but the ten indicators do not establish comparable success across the wider economy or household living standards.
Nor do they establish that a change of government would automatically improve those outcomes.
For voters, this distinction matters. The evidence supports recognising genuine improvements where they have occurred, while continuing to hold the government responsible for areas where living standards and services remain under pressure.
Will this in fact make New Zealand stronger? That must remain the test of every party seeking office.
New Zealanders deserve a government capable of delivering more than announcements. They deserve higher real incomes, accessible healthcare, affordable housing, productive employment, safer communities and reliable infrastructure.
The performance evidence tells us where progress is real, where problems remain and where political promises still need to be proven.
The ballot belongs to the voter. The obligation to demonstrate results belongs to every party seeking power.
Sources
Editorial note: The KPI charts supplied by The Facts Machine are the primary visual evidence for this report. Their party-coloured segments indicate periods in office, not independently established causal responsibility. The analysis should be read alongside each indicator's underlying dataset and methodology.