Policymakers fear that Trump might agree to reduce or even fully withdraw US troops from NATO’s Eastern Flank as part of a deal with Putin, which is why Poland wants a permanent American base.
Andrew Korybko
Poland’s publicly financed TVP World reported on journalist Dorota Gawryluk’s claim that President Karol Nawrocki considered proposing a quid pro quo to Trump in Davos whereby his country would join the Peace Board in exchange for agreement on a permanent US military base. She’s unsure whether he did so, and in any case, his rival Prime Minister Donald Tusk ultimately decided against joining. Nevertheless, reading between the lines, Poland is apparently anxious about the future of the US troops on its soil.
TVP
World reminded readers that “As of early 2026, there are around 10,000
U.S. troops stationed in Poland, primarily on a rotational basis.” The
continued rotational aspect of their deployment has de facto resulted in
a permanent deployment but can still lead to their withdrawal in the
future in spite of Trump publicly considering sending more
there during September’s meeting with Nawrocki in DC. The larger
context concerns Polish fears about the ultimate outcome of the ongoing
Russian-US talks.
Policymakers are worried about the
possibility of the US agreeing to reduce its regional military presence
or even fully withdraw all of its troops from there (including from
Poland) as part of a deal with Russia, perhaps in exchange for it
removing Oreshniks and/or tactical nukes from Belarus. That could
facilitate a US-Russian Non-Aggression Pact that would de facto function
as a NATO-Russian one given the US’ outsized role in the bloc and thus reform the European security architecture without Polish input.
For
historical reasons, Poland fears that such a scenario could lead to a
Russian invasion, after which the US might abandon Poland if it by then acquires stakes in Russia’s strategic resource sector per some of the deals that those two are discussing. Other reasons could be the US’ new prioritization
of the Western Hemisphere and its secondary one of containing China in
Asia. It unimportant that the preceding scenario is unlikely since all
that matters is that this possibility shapes the formulation of Polish
policy.
Poland’s Eastern Flank partners in Sweden,
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria share its
concerns about this as proven by part of the first clause in the joint declaration that followed their inaugural summit
in mid-December. It reads that “Russia’s strategic goals remain
unchanged: to create a buffer zone stretching from the Arctic region
through the Baltic and Black Seas to the Mediterranean”, the outcome of
which they plan to thwart by hyper-militarizing NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Even if they foil Trump’s speculative plan to cede this “buffer zone” to Putin as part of the “New Détente”
that they’re negotiating, that still wouldn’t resolve their subjective
concerns about the US’ reduced or even fully withdrawn military presence
from the Eastern Flank. In fact, it could even backfire by accelerating
the aforesaid process if the US then concludes that the Eastern Flank
can now ensure its own security without American troops. It’s for this
reason why Poland wants a permanent US base.
Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz claimed
right before Davos that “Fort Trump” will be built in southwestern
Poland, yet he clearly jumped the gun ahead of Nawrocki’s reportedly
considered quid pro quo proposal by taking for granted that it’ll be
shared with Trump and agreed to. It can’t be ruled out that this might
happen, but as it stands, nothing of the sort is in the cards. Poland
will therefore remain anxious about the future of US troops on its soil
and all that entails for its perceived long-term security.