He hopes to prove Ukraine’s worth in defending against Iranian drones so that NATO’s Eastern Flank then agrees to his earlier proposal for swapping some US troops with Ukrainian ones to defend against Russian drones as the quid pro quo for the bloc deploying troops to Ukraine after the conflict ends.
Andrew Korybko
Zelensky confirmed in an interview with the New York Times that he dispatched Ukrainian drone experts and interceptor drones
to protect US bases in Jordan upon the US’ request. He also revealed
that another team of experts will soon travel to the region to help
countries evaluate how they could protect themselves from Iranian
attacks without relying so much on costly Patriot missiles. Another
detail was him proposing that they help Ukraine diplomatically vis-à-vis
Russia in exchange for anti-drone support.
The
outlet editorialized that “Kyiv is hoping to score points with the
United States in American-brokered peace talks” and “hopes to draw a
contrast with Moscow” by having Ukraine provide defensive support for
the US and its allies to counter Russia allegedly helping
Iran target the US’ regional assets. Even so, Zelensky said that he has
“to balance those requests with Ukraine’s needs at home”, reaffirming
what he recently told Italian media about the scenario of possibly reduced Western aid due to the Third Gulf War.
In
that same earlier interview, he pitched for more investment in
Ukraine’s drone industry in exchange for sharing its knowledge and
experience with those who contribute to financing this, and the Gulf
Kingdoms obviously have the urgent need and the funds to pay for it on
his (potentially corrupt?)
terms. If he and his clique can personally profit from this, then he
might redirect experts and assets from his own country’s aerial defense
to the Gulf Kingdoms’ even at the expense of Ukraine’s national
interests.
Zelensky’s speculatively self-interested
motives aside, complying with the US’ reported request – which the New
York Times noted hadn’t been confirmed by it – and perhaps soon the Gulf
Kingdoms’ too enables him to present Ukraine as a reliable partner,
thus assuaging some domestic US dislike of it. This also conforms with
the informal policy that’s been in place for some years already of
selling Ukraine’s military services to countries like Sudan and non-state actors like the Tuaregs in conflict with Russia.
He
has larger ambitions than just selling his armed forces as a global
mercenary service, whether for (personal?) profit and/or
political/diplomatic gain, since his endgame is to convince the
Europeans to defy Russia
by deploying troops to Ukraine after the conflict ends. In pursuit of
this, he hopes to prove Ukraine’s worth in defending against Iranian
drones, after which he hopes that NATO’s Eastern Flank will agree with his October 2024 proposal for swapping some US troops with Ukrainian ones.
The
one that matters the most for Ukraine is Poland, which experienced a
Russian drone incursion last September (arguably caused by NATO jamming)
that was exploited by its deep state
in an attempt to manipulate the president into war with Russia.
Although he ruled out deploying troops to Ukraine during the election
and is unlikely to flip-flop, accepting Ukrainian anti-drone assistance
could encourage other NATO allies to seriously consider deploying troops
to Ukraine as a quid pro quo for it defending the bloc.
All
in all, while Zelensky hopes to remain in Trump’s good graces and
profit from helping protect the Gulf Kingdoms from Iranian drones, what
he wants most of all is a quid pro quo whereby Ukrainian forces protect
NATO’s Eastern Flank from Russian drones in exchange for NATO deploying
troops to Ukraine. Russia is still adamantly opposed to the presence of
any foreign forces there, however, so NATO might not agree to this
arrangement but could still solicit Ukraine’s services and thus further
enrich Zelensky.