NZ Fuel Watch – Daily Report

Supply Stabilising – But Structural Risks Emerging

New Zealand’s fuel supply position continues to stabilise in the short term, with vessel numbers and national distribution improving compared to earlier in the month.

However, underlying global pressures — particularly around refining capacity, shipping costs, and geopolitical instability — are beginning to signal deeper structural risks ahead.

Vessel Count Lifts to 10 – More on the Way

Current data shows total vessel count has risen to 10, with forecasts indicating a further 5 vessels expected before the end of April, taking the projected total to 15.

This places April slightly ahead of January’s intake of 14 vessels and broadly in line with February levels prior to the escalation of Middle East tensions.

There are an additional 8 vessels on the wider schedule, although 3 will not arrive until May, confirming early continuity into the next supply cycle.

Distribution Expands Across the Country

Fuel distribution across New Zealand is now sitting at 25 port movements, with additional deliveries expected:

• 5 more vessels yet to complete distribution
• 2 already in-country but not yet fully distributed
• Expected total to reach approximately 30 movements

Two of these vessels are expected to remain at Marsden Point, while the remaining three will distribute fuel across both the North and South Islands.

No Immediate Shortage – But Watch the Trend

There are currently no alerts indicating fuel shortages, and supply levels remain within a normal operational range.

Historically, vessel counts have dropped as low as 11–14, meaning current levels do not signal immediate concern.

However, optimal resilience would typically require higher volumes (closer to 17+), leaving the system still exposed to disruption.

Global Pressures Building Beneath the Surface

While supply chains appear to have temporarily stabilised, global conditions remain volatile.

Key pressures identified include:

• Ongoing instability linked to Middle East conflict
• Shipping insurance costs rising sharply (notably through Lloyd’s markets)
• Refineries globally being taken offline or operating under reduced capacity
• Competition between fuel production and petrochemical outputs

“There seem to be issues with the supply chains, and it is not all about crude… a great number of refineries have suddenly disappeared offline.”

Price Pressures Flowing Through the System

While spot oil prices are reported in the range of US$89–$95 per barrel, actual landed cost of fuel is significantly higher.

“Oil on board these ships now being loaded is costing 150 dollars per barrel… this goes through the supply chain as increased costs for everything.”

These cost increases are expected to flow through into:

• Fuel prices
• Transport costs
• Food and goods pricing
• Industrial inputs

Petrochemical Supply Now Competing with Fuel Demand

A critical emerging issue is the reallocation of refinery output toward transport fuels, reducing availability of key petrochemical inputs.

This includes:

• Naphtha (plastics production)
• Benzene, toluene, xylene (synthetics and manufacturing)
• Fertilisers and agricultural inputs
• Medical and pharmaceutical materials

“Preference is being given to producing petrol, diesel, and heavy fuel oil… other products are going on the back burner.”

Real Economy Impact Now Beginning

Early signs of economic impact are already emerging:

• Material costs rising (reported increases of ~30% in some sectors)
• Supply chain gaps forming in plastics and manufacturing
• Increased fuel theft incidents reported domestically
• Growing pressure on household budgets

The broader concern is not immediate supply failure — but cascading cost inflation and product shortages over time.

Outlook – Stable Now, Pressure Ahead

Short-term outlook remains stable, with adequate vessel flow and distribution.

However, forward indicators suggest:

• Increasing cost pressure across all sectors
• Continued vulnerability to global supply shocks
• Potential tightening of supply chains over the coming months

The current environment may represent a temporary lull before deeper impacts emerge.

Disclaimer

This report is based on independent analysis of publicly available shipping and port data. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, figures should be considered indicative rather than definitive. This report does not constitute financial or policy advice.