Overview
New Zealand’s fuel distribution network is entering a tightening phase, with limited vessel activity and widening gaps across several ports.
So far this month:
- Total moorings: 6
- Total vessels: 4
Two vessels have already completed single-port discharges:
- STI Opera → Marsden Point
- Hafnell Bay Trail → Tauranga
The remaining activity is being carried by:
- Grand Winner 3
- Esteem Endeavour
These two vessels are currently doing the bulk of the distribution work.
Shipping Movements – Current Schedule
| Vessel |
Origin |
Arrival Date |
Port(s) |
Notes |
| STI Opera |
— |
Early May |
Marsden Point |
Single-port discharge, completed |
| Hafnell Bay Trail |
— |
Early May |
Tauranga |
Single-port discharge, completed |
| Grand Winner 3 |
— |
Ongoing |
Multi-port (incl. Nelson onward) |
Active distribution vessel |
| Esteem Endeavour |
London |
5 May |
Bluff (also multi-port) |
Active distribution vessel |
| SW Kyoto |
— |
6 May |
Wellington → New Plymouth |
Single rotation |
| Gem Emerald |
— |
9 May |
Tauranga → South Island |
Key South Island feeder |
| Maersk Crete |
Bafayeti |
Mid-May |
Timaru |
Single-port, quick turnaround |
| Vertis |
Singapore |
16 May |
Tauranga |
Next major North Island arrival |
Port Status & Forward Visibility
| Port |
Next Arrival |
Status |
| Marsden Point |
~14–15 May |
Extended gap forming |
| Tauranga |
9 May (Gem Emerald) |
Moderate gap |
| Napier |
None scheduled |
High risk (~20 days supply) |
| Wellington |
6 May (SW Kyoto) |
Short-term coverage |
| New Plymouth |
8 May (via SW Kyoto) |
Short-term coverage |
| Nelson |
19 May |
Extended gap |
| Christchurch |
11 May (via Gem Emerald) |
Dependent on North Island supply |
| Timaru |
Mid-May |
Limited rotation |
| Dunedin |
8 May / 15 May |
Moderate spacing |
| Bluff |
5 May (Esteem Endeavour) |
Single delivery |
South Island Pressure Building
The South Island is beginning to show extended delivery gaps, with several ports reliant on:
- Single-vessel rotations
- North Island redistribution (via Gem Emerald)
While there is still a light drip feed of supply, the spacing between deliveries is increasing.
Mid-Month Risk Window
The key pressure point is forming around 14–15 May.
If additional vessels are not scheduled within the next few days, supply pressure could begin to build across the network.
There remains:
- A residual buffer from April deliveries
- Limited ongoing supply movements
However:
The current schedule raises the question of whether incoming supply is sufficient to replace drawdown levels.
Outlook
This pattern is consistent with early signals seen last month, but with longer gaps now emerging, increasing the level of concern.
If no additional vessels are confirmed before 10 May, the risk profile may shift from tight supply conditions to potential disruption.
For now:
- Supply remains stable
- Forward visibility is limited
- Vessel pipeline remains thin
The next few days will be critical in determining direction.
Disclaimer
This report is based on publicly available shipping and port data. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, the information is not real-time and may change. This analysis is not intended as financial or policy advice.
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Dave Trotter – Fuel Compilation Analyst
Dave Trotter is an independent Fuel Compilation Analyst and founder of Marsden Point News Radio. He tracks fuel tanker movements in and out of New Zealand using real-time shipping and port data following the Marsden Point Refinery closure. His work provides a factual, ground-level view of NZ’s fuel supply, focusing on imports, storage, and distribution across multiple ports. Dave publishes regular updates at www.davidtrotter.co.nz and via Telegram.