US President Donald Trump’s arrival in China this week is being treated as far more than another diplomatic photo opportunity.
Relations between Washington and Beijing remain tense, competition between the two powers stretches across almost every domain, and yet both sides appear increasingly aware that uncontrolled confrontation would carry enormous costs.
Against that backdrop, the prospect of a broader geopolitical bargain is once again entering the discussion.
According to Xiang Lanxin, visiting professor at East China Normal University and research fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, Trump is not approaching China in the same ideological spirit that defined the Biden administration.
The atmosphere in Washington, he argues, has shifted noticeably.
He spoke to Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Economic Competition — But Less Ideological
Fyodor Lukyanov: “What are the economic objectives of China and the US?”
Xiang Lanxin:
The economy is undoubtedly a bargaining chip.
China wants:
- fewer restrictions
- greater market access
- and reduced barriers in the high-tech sector.
According to Xiang, the Trump team appears significantly more conciliatory than the Biden administration, even regarding semiconductors and advanced technologies.
He argues the “small backyard, high fence” strategy pursued under Biden is not one the current White House fully supports.
History, Xiang says, demonstrates that technological diffusion across borders cannot realistically be stopped forever.
“Otherwise, the UK would still be dominating industry today.”
The Possibility of a “Big Deal”
Fyodor Lukyanov: “Are there no illusions regarding relations with China, or are some changes still possible?”
Xiang Lanxin:
“Of course, they are possible.”
Xiang says Trump may be seeking what he calls a “big deal” with China — one extending beyond economics into great-power geopolitics.
According to Xiang, there are two major issues Trump wants to address with Beijing:
- stabilising the Taiwan Strait
- and reshaping great-power relations between Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
Taiwan Back On The Table
Xiang argues that the Biden administration significantly disrupted the previous strategic balance around Taiwan.
He notes Biden publicly deviated multiple times from the long-standing U.S. principle of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.
Trump, he says, appears more cautious.
The goal may not be formal alignment with Beijing, but rather preventing escalation and discouraging Taiwanese independence.
According to Xiang:
- even limited progress on Taiwan would represent a major victory for China
- because it could indicate a tougher U.S. stance against formal Taiwanese independence.
Trump’s “Grand Triangle”
Another major theme raised in the interview is Trump’s alleged interest in reviving a geopolitical structure resembling:
- Washington
- Moscow
- and Beijing
as a strategic triangle.
Xiang claims Henry Kissinger heavily influenced Trump’s worldview.
According to him, Kissinger believed stability between the three great powers mattered more than almost anything else in global politics — including the European Union.
Xiang says Trump appears to take this idea seriously.
Europe Caught Between Powers
Fyodor Lukyanov: “China is unlikely to stand in the way of such a triangle forming.”
Xiang Lanxin:
“Yes, this isn’t about China, but about the European Union.”
Xiang argues the EU made major strategic miscalculations under the Biden era regarding:
- Russia
- China
- and the global economic system itself.
European leaders, he says, believed Biden’s ideological Cold War-style framing would remain permanent and did not expect Trump to return to power.
As a result:
- Europe damaged relations with Russia over Ukraine
- while simultaneously distancing itself from China
- leaving itself strategically isolated.
According to Xiang, the EU will eventually be forced to reassess:
- relations with Moscow
- relations with Beijing
- and its broader strategic direction.
“Military Keynesianism”
The interview also touched on rising military spending across the West.
Fyodor Lukyanov: “You once mentioned ‘military Keynesianism’ as a trend everyone is embracing.”
Xiang Lanxin:
Xiang argues governments are increasingly using military spending as:
- an economic stimulus tool
- a technology driver
- and a justification for industrial restructuring.
Germany and other European states, he says, are already using the Ukraine war as justification for major defence-sector expansion.
However, Xiang does not believe this necessarily leads to direct world war — unless the major powers themselves lose patience and enter direct confrontation.
“But then that would truly be the end of the world.”
This interview was produced specifically for the program International Review (Rossiya 24) and was translated and edited by RT team.