Ships Still Moving, The Picture Starting To Fill In

The interesting thing this week is that after what felt like a very slow start to May, we're now starting to see the shipping picture fill out quite a bit. Earlier in the month there were days where you could look across the schedules and there was practically nothing new to report. That naturally raises eyebrows because people start asking whether supply issues are developing behind the scenes.

But looking at where we sit now, the overall picture still looks reasonably positive.

We are still tracking around 17 fuel vessels for May, which keeps us broadly in line with what we've been seeing through much of the year. The difference this month is that vessel sourcing has become more random than usual.

Rather than the typical repeat patterns out of Singapore and South Korea, we're seeing ships arriving from a wider variety of locations and some routes we don't normally see.

That probably tells us something.

My view is there likely have been supply pressures around refinery output and availability of finished fuels, which has created a bit of a scramble among suppliers to secure product where they can get it.

But importantly, the ships are still arriving.

The fuel is still moving.

And for now, New Zealand's supply picture still appears healthy.

Looking across the ports, Tauranga continues dominating movements with eight scheduled moorings while Marsden Point remains highly active.

Napier has finally reappeared on the board with STI Virtus arriving and currently moored, which removes some of the concern that was building earlier around extended gaps between deliveries.

Wellington remains relatively quiet for now but several vessel movements are expected toward the end of the month.

New Plymouth still has no additional listed shipments although historically that isn't particularly unusual either.

South Island redistribution continues quietly in the background through Christchurch, Timaru, Bluff and Dunedin.

Where the fuel is coming from

Singapore still dominates fuel sourcing with South Korea remaining active, but Malaysia is becoming more visible and we're now seeing movements linked to locations that haven't featured much previously.

As noted at Marsden Point News Radio:

"The vessels arriving are coming from a variety of countries and ports we have not seen before, hence some of them will have already discharged fuels at some previous ports and will not be fully laden."

"That will explain why some vessels so far this month have only gone to one or at most two ports."

That is quite interesting because it may explain some of the vessel behaviour people have been noticing.

Readers watching the details

The comments this week raised some interesting observations.

Levi commented:

"So at 17 final count for May. It would still seem to be business as usual then."

And that's probably a fair summary.

At this stage there is still nothing suggesting major stress within the system.

Alan raised another interesting point:

"Trying to find out what metric tonnage they have on board can be tricky."

"Some are actually sitting deeper in the water when they depart compared to when they arrived."

That brought a response from Marsden Point News Radio:

"What is on board is something we will never find out. I know the vessels capacity but the quantity will never be shown."

"Fuel companies know what they have ordered but that again is kept under wraps."

Alan later noted:

"I notice the Sea Odyssey appears to still be loaded as it sits at anchor at Bream Bay. I'm going off its draught depth to establish this."

Interesting observations like that are one of the reasons why shipping followers continue uncovering patterns that aren't immediately obvious.

Current Port Snapshot

Marsden Point

• Hafnia Falcon currently moored
• Sea Odyssey currently at anchor
• High Mariner ETA 24 May
• Chang Hang Fei Yue ETA 26 May

Tauranga

• Stena Convoy ETA 25 May
• Chang Hang Kai Tuo ETA 27 May
• Hafnia Mikala ETA 30 May

Napier

• STI Virtus currently moored

Wellington

• Multiple expected end-of-month arrivals

South Island

• Christchurch, Timaru, Bluff and Dunedin continue redistribution activity

Overall outlook

If I step back and look at the bigger picture, despite all the international noise around shipping routes and fuel markets, New Zealand still appears to be tracking relatively normally.

The pattern may be a little different.

The ships may be arriving from more unusual places.

But the important part remains the same:

The vessels are still turning up.

The fuel is still moving.

For now.