New Zealanders have increasingly been asking questions this month as NZ Fuel Watch reports continue to show an unusual pattern emerging in tanker movements and fuel origins.
Normally, the flow of refined fuel into New Zealand follows fairly predictable pathways. South Korea, Singapore and occasionally Japan have historically provided the backbone of refined product shipments entering the country.
But recent observations suggest something different may be unfolding.
Instead of seeing large direct shipments arriving through traditional supply chains, there appears to be an increasing number of smaller cargoes originating from places not normally associated with New Zealand's primary fuel supply.
The public noticed.
And the commentary that followed has been some of the most insightful discussion NZ Fuel Watch has seen.
The Public Starts Connecting The Dots
Lisa was among the first to raise what many were likely thinking:
"Getting fuel from Suva and Noumea is very unusual isn’t it? Small countries who I would have thought are desperate to hang on to any of their supplies, not send it to NZ - obviously some interesting deals going on there."
She added:
"Great explanation, thanks David."
Jeremy then asked the obvious question:
"Are these just en route sources? Like via Suva?"
Lisa continued expanding on the theory:
"Good question. Sounds like NZ managed to purchase a small quantity of a bigger shipment, so perhaps the tanker emptied most of shipment in Suva for example then came to NZ to offload our small portion. Very interesting. And kind of desperate."
She then expanded further:
"Indonesia, New Caledonia and Fiji. All countries relatively near to us. And we’re getting some shipments of fuel from them. Surely this must be a portion of bigger shipments to these countries. Ticketing system maximising opportunities to get more refined product into NZ. Not full shipments, part shipments. Hence only stopping at one or two NZ ports. Does that sound about right Dave?"
It's a reasonable observation.
On the surface, smaller Pacific nations do not immediately appear to be logical sources for substantial fuel supply into New Zealand.
Unless, of course, they are not really the origin at all.
One Large Pie Made From Seventeen Pieces
Dave Trotter from Marsden Point News Radio offered what may be one of the clearest explanations yet.
"First thing is, thank you for all your comments."
"I think we are all seeing the same thing, This month so far has been so slow and so far I have not been recording the same tanker traffic as I normally would be doing."
"What I normally would be recording is the bulk of shipments coming out from S. Korea, Singapore and the odd one from Japan, however now as we can all see is, what we have mostly been getting is what is left from other vessels en route to somewhere else bought in here."
Then came perhaps the best description of the situation:
"The end result is looking like, one large pie make up of 17 parts and taking 37 ingredients to make it."
"Normally this would have taken less effort but with a shortage of ingredients around being resourceful has had to happen, shop around and find what you can."
That analogy likely resonated with many readers.
Instead of one complete cargo arriving directly into New Zealand, the picture emerging is one where multiple smaller opportunities are being pieced together to maintain overall supply.
Tasman Fuels and Making The System Work
Dave continued:
"This is how Tasman Fuels work. Timaru is still partly on the normal shipping route, I have explained the distinct shipping routes before, Tasman Fuels will pick up fuels shipments from the Pacific Countries and bring in what it can, this system works and is still working this month."
"So what we have had this month is the same, but on a much larger scale, not fully nation wide but in part and where necessary."
Then came the observation that likely caught many readers' attention:
"Overall, I think we were getting near the point of having very little fuels this month."
Jeremy responded simply:
"Your candour is appreciated."
Then added:
"The steady reduced retail belies this situation."
And perhaps that raises one of the bigger questions.
If supply chains appear increasingly fragmented, why are retail prices not reflecting similar pressure?
The Tanker Puzzle
Levi introduced another possibility:
"Unless they are back loading something from NZ."
"As Alan has noted, the ships appear to be going out full or even heavier in some instances."
"A backload is always an attractive proposition in transport logistics."
Alan then added significant technical detail:
"Yes, as our ports can only take or have ships with a maximum draught or depth they sit in the water I think from memory is 18 metres at low tide."
He then broke down vessel capacities and unloading scenarios involving tankers such as Sea Odyssey and Hafnia Falcon, suggesting that partial unloading operations may be occurring rather than complete discharge.
Alan observed:
"The Hafnia Falcon when I last looked when it was unloading at Marsden its draught was at 10.8 metres... so it only unloaded about half at Marsden. About 45-50 million litres."
He then raised another possibility:
"Some of this fuel products could be for the private sector not Joe Public, specially seen the private sector are expanding their tank storage capacity."
And another interesting point:
"Depending if they have done deals to share shipping costs, plus it depends on the size of the tankers and what ports they can get into to unload or load."
Reading Between The Tanker Tracks
None of these observations necessarily point toward an immediate fuel crisis.
But they do reveal something important.
The public is increasingly watching vessel movements, cargo patterns and supply routes closely and asking questions that perhaps many never asked before Marsden Point closed.
For years fuel simply appeared.
Ships arrived.
Product flowed.
Stations filled.
End of story.
Now people are watching individual tankers, calculating draught depths, discussing partial unloads and tracking supply chains from Fiji, Indonesia and New Caledonia.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this month's NZ Fuel Watch discussion is not simply where fuel is coming from.
It's that many readers appear to be recognising that New Zealand's fuel system may increasingly resemble exactly what Dave described:
"One large pie made up of 17 parts and taking 37 ingredients to make it."
And if that pie suddenly loses a few ingredients, people are now beginning to ask an uncomfortable question:
What happens next month?