Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic and energy flows are expected to resume following the proposed agreement.
By Tyler Durden
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 - 10:48 AM
Summary
- Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens Friday
- Pakistan PM Confirms Peace Deal, with a signing event in Switzerland next Friday
- Trump Confirms US-Iran Peace Deal "Now Complete" and says "Let The Oil Flow"
- Iran's president issues pro-MoU signing statement as Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
- White House still suggesting an electronic MoU deal to be signed with Iran on Sunday, which leaves nuclear negotiations to further date, only with commitment that Iran not pursue a nuke.
- Trump: new strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran."
- "A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran & the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets" (Reuters).
- Iranian statements characteristically cautious: Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details.
Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens On Friday
"This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The timing of the peace deal is critical. The world was approaching a dangerous energy cliff, with strategic petroleum reserves being quickly drained to offset lost Gulf production and stabilize physical markets. Still, even with a deal in place, energy flows through the strategic maritime chokepoint will not normalize overnight.
It will likely take several months, if not quarters, to clear the backlog, restore shipping confidence, de-risk insurance markets, and bring regional production and export flows back to pre-crisis levels. As for damaged energy assets such as those in Qatar, it'll take years to get production back to pre-war levels.
Polymarket odds of a permanent US-Iran deal are surging.
Deal Confirmed By Trump, Pakistan PM, Just Ahead Of NY Futures Opening
Just 30 minutes before futures open in New York, President Trump announced on Truth Social that a "Deal" with Iran is now complete.
"Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump said.
Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, also confirmed: "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED."
Sharif said, "The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland."
Israeli journalist and Iran affairs correspondent/analyst for Israel's Channel 14 reports that hardliners in Iran, including IRGC forces, will not derail the peace deal.
With futures in New York set to open momentarily, and with Brent and WTI contracts likely to panic-dump while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures catch a bid, crypto is soaring.
S&P500 futures up about 1%.
WTI futures tumbling to the $81 per barrel level.
Earlier, Jefferies analyst David Zervos noted:
"I remain hopeful on the Iran front and, when we see resolution, that oil will drop below $60 and we go back to pricing in cuts, with Fed balance sheet reduction in the spotlight. I am confident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on SPOOs, and eying 9s in '27/'28."
Iran's President Pezeshkian Cites Solid Results For Iran As MoU Signing Could Be Just Hours Away: Rare Optimism From Both Sides
It seems like a deal will really happen this time... finally... given Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
via Fars News:
- Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results.
- Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran's interests than ourselves.
- Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system.
- Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us.
- I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries.
- Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved.
- Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement.
- Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won't bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure.
- Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.
Fox News, citing President Trump, says deal could be signed in the next 2-3 hours.
Israeli Strike on Beirut Once Again Threatens MoU Signing: Trump says "Let's Not Blow It"
President Trump on Truth Social has sought to brush back the Israeli Sunday strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, saying this morning's attack "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran."
He emphasized:
"We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down."
He warned not just Israel against more attacks, but said Hezbollah must refrain after the Iran-aligned Shia group sent more projectiles on northern Israel.
"This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace."
He added:
"Let's not blow it."
Lebanon's civil defense agency has indicated that the new attacks on Beirut's southern suburbs killed at least three people.
Iran Weighs In on Anticipated MoU Signing Details
Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting fresh details on Iran's version of the proposed memorandum.
According to Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, the draft memorandum includes:
- Diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran.
- Release of $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
- Immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Removal of the US naval blockade.
- Iranian commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons.
- Maintaining the nuclear status quo until a final agreement is reached.
- No uranium enrichment expansion and no expansion of nuclear facilities.
Sunday Iran Deal Expected
President Trump said Saturday that an interim U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the four-month conflict could be signed as soon as Sunday.
"The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL."
Pakistan and Qatar are mediating, with technical talks expected to follow any signing and last up to 60 days.
Pakistan's Sharif Says Deal Imminent; Iran More Cautious
Pakistan, which has served as one of the mediators, is preparing to sign the peace deal electronically, followed by technical-level talks next week, according to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Meanwhile, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details and have not yet made a final decision.
Energy markets priced in de-escalation last week, with Brent crude futures sliding as much as 5.1% Friday and European gas dropping as much as 8.4% after Trump canceled planned new strikes on Iran.
IG's weekend markets are pricing in a 50 basis point decline in Brent crude when futures open.
But throughput traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remains far below pre-war levels, and a vessel was struck off Oman on Saturday. Normalization could take weeks, if not months.
Bloomberg noted:
"Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted."
ZeroHedge
By Tyler Durden