China has notified New Zealand and other regional governments that it intends to conduct a missile test in the South Pacific within the next day. The planned launch comes as Australia and Fiji strengthen defence cooperation through a new security agreement, adding to growing strategic tensions across the Indo-Pacific
INR Report: Based on reporting by Lillian Hanly for RNZ HERE.
Missile Test Planned
China is expected to conduct a missile test in the South Pacific within the next 24 hours after notifying the New Zealand Government of its intentions, according to RNZ.
RNZ understands New Zealand received advance warning from Chinese authorities, with Australia also reportedly informed through diplomatic channels. The planned launch has not yet been publicly confirmed by either the New Zealand Government or the Chinese Embassy.
Defence Alliance Background
The notification follows the signing of a new defence and security agreement between Australia and Fiji.
The agreement, described by Australian ministers as a "mutual defence treaty", was signed in Fiji on Monday and marks a significant strengthening of regional security cooperation. RNZ notes that The Australian has reported the missile test may be linked to the new alliance, although no official confirmation has been provided by Beijing.
Nuclear-Capable Missile Report
According to The Australian, the missile involved is believed to be nuclear-capable but is expected to carry a dummy warhead during the test.
The newspaper reported that several Pacific governments received advance notification from China through diplomatic channels before the planned launch. RNZ has approached both the New Zealand Government and the Chinese Embassy for comment.
New Zealand Monitoring
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirmed on Monday that he had spoken with both the Australian and Fijian prime ministers following the signing of the new security agreement.
Luxon said New Zealand was interested in exploring participation in the arrangement but stressed that Cabinet had yet to make any final decisions.
He added that early participation would allow New Zealand greater influence over any future expansion of the partnership across the Pacific.
New Zealand Context
China's planned missile test highlights the Pacific's growing strategic importance as competition between major powers intensifies.
For New Zealand, the issue extends well beyond the missile launch itself. Wellington must increasingly balance its close security relationships with Australia and traditional Western partners against its significant economic relationship with China, New Zealand's largest trading partner.
The timing of the reported missile test is also notable. Coming immediately after the Australia–Fiji defence agreement, it illustrates how developments in Pacific security are becoming increasingly interconnected. Strategic decisions made in Suva, Canberra, Wellington and Beijing now have implications across the wider Indo-Pacific.
As regional defence partnerships continue to evolve, New Zealand faces an increasingly complex foreign policy environment where diplomacy, trade, regional security and Pacific relationships are becoming more closely intertwined than at any time in recent decades.
Source
Lillian Hanly, RNZ, China to conduct missile test in South Pacific within next day, 7 July 2026.