National's poll numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction, prompting renewed debate over the Government's performance halfway through its first term. In this opinion piece, Andy Loader argues that two issues above all others are driving voter dissatisfaction: the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and what he sees as the Coalition's failure to deliver on key pre-election commitments regarding race-based policies. He contends that unless those concerns are addressed before the 2026 General Election, National risks paying a heavy political price.
The latest RNZ–Reid Research poll records the fourth consecutive decline for Christopher Luxon's National Party since May last year, with support falling to its lowest level since Luxon became leader in 2021. Labour remains ahead despite its own decline, prompting renewed questions about why the Government has struggled to convert improving economic sentiment into stronger public support.
In my opinion, there are two primary reasons.
The first is the economy. The second is the Coalition's failure to deliver on several of its key pre-election promises, particularly around race-based policies.
The Economy
Christopher Luxon repeatedly stated before the election that repairing New Zealand's economy would be the Government's highest priority.
The scale of the challenge inherited from the previous Labour Government was enormous. Crown expenditure increased from approximately $76 billion in 2017 to $139 billion by 2023, while government debt doubled over the same period. Individual taxpayers also saw significantly higher tax contributions as government spending expanded.
The Coalition has made several decisions that may improve New Zealand's long-term financial position, but those measures have yet to provide meaningful relief for households struggling with the immediate pressures of rising living costs.
Many New Zealanders continue to face high mortgage repayments, expensive groceries, elevated insurance costs and ongoing pressure on household budgets. While long-term fiscal discipline may eventually restore greater economic stability, voters often judge governments on what they experience today rather than what may occur several years from now.
External events have also complicated the Government's task. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have contributed to continued global economic uncertainty, affecting inflation, energy prices and international markets that influence New Zealand's economy.
Race-Based Policies
The Coalition Agreement between National, ACT and New Zealand First included commitments to end race-based policies and restore equal treatment under the law.
In my view, progress in this area has fallen well short of what many voters expected.
One issue that remains central to this debate is the continued existence of the Māori electorates.
These seats were originally established in 1867 as a temporary measure to provide representation for Māori men excluded from voting under the property qualification. Once universal suffrage was achieved, and later with the introduction of MMP, I believe the original justification no longer existed.
Today, I believe separate electorates based on ancestry are inconsistent with the principle of equal citizenship.
Rather than encouraging national unity, they reinforce political division by maintaining separate electoral systems based on ethnicity.
The expansion of co-governance proposals, race-based funding models and separate governance structures has further intensified this debate. In my opinion, democracy functions best when every citizen is treated equally before the law, regardless of ancestry or ethnicity.
One Law For All
I believe New Zealand's future should be built upon the principle of equal citizenship.
Every New Zealander should participate in the same democratic system, with the same rights and responsibilities.
Removing race-based political structures would not prevent targeted programmes where genuine disadvantage exists. Governments can still provide assistance based on need without embedding separate constitutional arrangements based on ancestry.
Most New Zealanders simply want to live peaceful, productive lives. Race should not become the defining feature of public policy or political identity. Society functions through compromise, mutual respect and shared citizenship rather than permanent division.
Time Is Running Short
Christopher Luxon may have secured the confidence of his caucus, but winning the confidence of voters at the 2026 General Election presents a much greater challenge.
The Coalition was elected with a mandate to reverse many of the policies introduced during six years of Labour Government. While significant progress has been made in some areas, many supporters remain frustrated that change has not occurred more quickly.
In my view, National still has an opportunity to improve its electoral prospects by delivering more fully on its original commitments, including its promises regarding race-based legislation and governance. Whether enough time remains before polling day to regain public confidence remains to be seen.
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The current Co-chairman of P.L.U.G (Primary Land Users Group), Andy Loader was elected to the board as the extractive industry’s representative in 2013 after a long and distinguished career in the industry. Responsible for the board’s communications, he has long been an advocate for the farming and primary industry challenging the powers at be to provide accurate and transparent representation of the industry and the issues it faces.